Well, it's been an interesting week, and this weekend promises to make things in the presidential campaign even more interesting.
On Tuesday, Mitt Romney won the Michigan Primary in convincing fashion, taking 39% of the vote to John McCain's 30% and Mike Huckabee's 16%. As you might recall from Tuesday's blog, this was widely viewed as a "must win" contest for Romney. He had trailed in the polls in his home state following McCain's win in New Hampshire, but managed to close the gap and then some.
This gave a much needed boost to Romney, and while he spent time on the ground and on the airwaves in South Carolina this week, he turned the majority of his attention to the Nevada Caucus which, like the South Carolina Republican Primary, will be held tomorrow. In South Carolina, McCain has a solid lead in the latest RealClearPolitics Polling Average with 27.9% to Huckabee's 23.7%, Romney's 16.1% and Fred Thompson's 13.7%. McCain looks almost certain to win here, as Huckabee and Thompson seem to be splitting the evangelical and "very conservative" Republican voters in this Southern state. Romney really only needs to finish in (a respectable) fourth place (provided he has a strong showing in Nevada) to not lose ground in the overall momentum game. Huckabee needs a win, or at least a very strong second-place finish to maintain the mojo he has enjoyed since his Iowa win. Should Thompson finish a distant third-place to McCain and Huckabee, or even worse, in fourth-place behind Romney too, his campaign will likely be over.
In Nevada, a state where the GOP contest was receiving little attention, Romney holds the lead in the latest RCP Polling Average. Nevada has a relatively large number of Mormon residents, and this should be a natural source of support for Romney who is also a Mormon. If Romney wins Nevada, he will be well-positioned as the alternative to John McCain as the candidates head toward the January 29th Florida Primary, where Rudy Giuliani is waiting and must win. Should Romney somehow slip up and lose in Nevada, his candidacy will again be wounded.
The most likely outcome, however, is a McCain win in South Carolina, and a Romney win in Nevada. If this is indeed what happens, Thompson will likely drop out of the race, and Huckabee will be fading fast with his Iowa win now a distant memory. This will set up what will essentially be a three-man showdown in Florida between McCain, Romney and Giuliani, and most likely, the ultimate showdown between the three on February 5th -- "Super Tuesday". Obviously much can (and likely will) change between now and the January 29th Florida contest, so do stay tuned!
The Democrats are squarely focused on Nevada tomorrow. (The South Carolina Democratic Primary will be next Saturday, January 26th). Hillary Clinton "won" the Democratic Primary in Michigan on Tuesday, but as you may recall, because of a mess between the DNC and the Michigan Democratic Party, it was essentially meaningless and no other Democratic candidates were even on the ballot. In fact, the only alternative to Hillary on the ballot in Michigan was "Uncommitted", a selection a voter would make to indicate that he or she was not yet committing to any of the Democratic Candidates, but what effectively served as a vote against Hillary. For the Clinton Campaign, the results were less than encouraging. Senator Clinton took 55% of the vote, however "Uncommitted" garnered 40% of the vote, meaning that 40% of those voting in a largely meaningless Democratic Primary went through the time and effort to do so solely to express their dissatisfaction with Hillary and her candidacy. (Even more worrisome for the Clinton Campaign, perhaps, is that a substantial percentage of the "Uncommitted" vote were black voters, a potential sign that the racially-charged previous week had done damage to the African-American Community's view of Hillary Clinton. This could portend real trouble for her chances ahead -- particularly in South Carolina next weekend where it's likely that at least half of the Democratic voters will be black).
Back in Nevada, Tuesday night's Democratic Debate was a veritable love-in as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama went to great (and noticeable) effort to avoid conflict. (John Edwards, quite frankly, is largely irrelevant at this point). Both Clinton and Obama seemed aware that the tone of the campaign in the days preceding the debate had been negative and often racial in nature, and that it was doing no good for either candidate. The lawsuit I told you about in the last blog that sought to close the at-large caucus locations for shift-workers was thrown out yesterday. As a result, many of those working on the Las Vegas Strip will now be able to vote without leaving work, a group that is comprised largely of Culinary Workers Union members -- mostly Obama supporters. In the latest RCP Polling Average, Hillary maintains a lead in Nevada, and a win for her there is probably less significant than a loss would be. Should she lose, watch for the media to flow back toward Obama as they did following Iowa, and look for further Democratic Party "bigwigs" to jump aboard the Obama Train -- much like Vermont Senator Pat Leahy did yesterday. This will particularly be true if Obama's current lead in the South Carolina polls holds up, and he is able to win there next weekend. A win in both Nevada and South Carolina would be huge for Obama.
I will predict that Obama upsets Clinton in Nevada tomorrow. If he wins in Nevada, look for the kinder tone between the candidates to quickly revert to negative and, unfortunately, look for the Clintons to covertly play "the race card" again. Should this happen, I suspect the racial questions would mostly be raised through implications and innuendo, and likely not by either Hillary or Bill Clinton themselves, but by various campaign spokespeople and surrogates. If Obama wins in South Carolina on top of a win in Nevada, the Clintons will only be more desperate to recover, and more likely to resort to whatever it takes to win. Just like the GOP contest though, this is all very fluid and unpredictable, so be sure to keep an eye on the news (and hopefully, on "Bragging Writes" every now and then, too)!
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