Did I Speak Too Soon ???

In my last post -- written while watching the GOP Debate in Florida -- I made the prediction that Mitt Romney would win Florida and go on to win the Republican Nomination. It was a gut feeling, supported by a definite surge of Romney's poll numbers in Florida and a strong performance in the debate.

Today, however, two very significant things have happened in Florida that could end up tipping the scales enough to allow John McCain to win the state. (And really, whoever wins Florida will likely go on to win the GOP Nomination). So what happened today?

First and most important, Florida Governor Charlie Crist endorsed McCain. This was an endorsement that any GOP candidate in Florida would have loved to receive (and an endorsement that all of the candidates undoubtedly sought). As recently as three hours ago, the speculation was that Crist would not make an endorsement because, with the race so close, there was little political upside for the Florida Governor to endorse a candidate who might not ultimately win. Regardless, he now has, and as an enormously popular governor, Crist's endorsement is important, and it could potentially swing Florida into the McCain column. The only way that Romney could trump this would be to secure the endorsement of the only politician in Florida more popular than Governor Crist: Former Governor Jeb Bush. As recently as last week, however, Bush reiterated that he would not do so, telling the popular website Politico.com, "I am neutral". Absent a Jeb Bush endorsement of Romney, the Crist endorsement could prove to be the catalyst for a McCain victory in Florida.

Second, John McCain accused Mitt Romney of having been in favor of a "timetable" for withdrawing American troops from Iraq. This is definitely significant, although it remains to be seen how it will play out. On the campaign trail in Fort Myers, Florida today, Senator McCain said the following:

“If we surrender and wave a white flag like Senator Clinton wants to do and withdraw as Governor Romney wanted to do, then there will be chaos.”

He later reiterated the claim, telling voters in Sun City:

“My friends, I was there — he said he wanted a timetable for withdrawal.”

The problem? It doesn't appear that Romney actually did call for a timetable. Romney certainly doesn't believe he did, and he was furious when told of McCain's comments:

''That's dishonest, to say that I have a specific date. That's simply wrong. To say something that's not accurate is simply wrong, and he knows better."

Romney went on to demand an apology from McCain. The Arizona Senator refused, telling reporters:

"I think the apology is owed to the young men and women serving this nation in uniform."

So what did Romney in fact say that led the McCain Campaign to make this charge. I invite you to watch and listen for yourself:
I think, however, that it's important to actually see the quote (in writing), and also to see the question that followed that one, and more importantly, Romney's answer to it:

QUESTION: Iraq. John McCain is there in Baghdad right now. You have also been very vocal in supporting the president and the troop surge. Yet, the American public has lost faith in this war. Do you believe that there should be a timetable in withdrawing the troops?

MR. ROMNEY: Well, there's no question but that -- the president and Prime Minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about. But those shouldn't be for public pronouncement. You don't want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you're going to be gone. You want to have a series of things you want to see accomplished in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and the Iraqi police, and the leadership of the Iraqi government.

QUESTION: So, private. You wouldn't do it publicly? Because the president has said flat out that he will veto anything the Congress passes about a timetable for troop withdrawals. As president, would you do the same?

MR. ROMNEY: Well, of course. Can you imagine a setting where during the Second World War we said to the Germans, gee, if we haven't reached the Rhine by this date, why, we'll go home, or if we haven't gotten this accomplished we'll pull up and leave? You don't publish that to your enemy, or they just simply lie in wait until that time. So, of course, you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don't do that with the opposition.

So while the first answer could potentially be interpreted as Romney indicating support for a timetable, in his answer to the follow-up question, he clearly indicates that he would veto anything Congress passed that demanded a timetable for withdrawal. It is my feeling that Romney did not, in fact, support a timetable for withdrawal, or at least not a "timetable" in the of the type he is now accused by McCain of advocating. It seems to me that Romney believed that it was important for President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki to communicate, and to have benchmarks and goals by which progress could be measured. It did not -- in any way, shape or form -- appear to me that Romney was looking for the sort of defeatist, "cut and run" timetable and withdrawal implied by McCain's comments today. I believe that McCain saw that he was slipping in the Florida polls, that he realized that as long as the economy was dominating the political "conversation" (as it has in Florida all week), he would not be able to recover. The economy is unquestionably Romney's strong suit whereas the Iraq War and issues of national security tend to play better for McCain. I think this was a political cheap shot, and it's particularly ironic given that this below-the-belt punch is coming from the self-styled "Man of Honor", the man who loves to tout his "Straight Talk", and the candidate who has been the quickest heretofore to cry foul over negative, attacking politics. This could either help McCain if somewhat disinterested Floridians hear the charge but don't listen long enough to hear the entire quote in its proper context, or it could potentially hurt McCain if the people of Florida see the charge for what it is: a hypocritical low blow from a candidate desperate to win. As always, it is the voters who will decide.