Veep Watch

In the last two weeks there has been a great deal of speculation that either Barack Obama, John McCain -- or both -- may be on the verge of naming their running mates very soon. Given all of the chatter, I thought I'd offer a little guidance for you on what to expect (or not to expect) in the coming days and weeks.

First and foremost, let's keep a few dates and events in mind:
1) August 8th - August 24th: The Summer Olympics in Beijing;
3) August 25th - August 28th: The Democratic National Convention in Denver;
4) August 29th - September 1st: Labor Day Weekend;
4) September 1st - September 4th: The Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul.

Now let's look at a few other factors to keep in mind:
1) It's unlikely that either candidate will announce his running mate on a Saturday, Sunday, Monday or Friday -- those are not ideal days in terms of being able to capture the attention of voters. (Wednesday or Thursday, I would argue, would be the best days of the week to announce in order to have the greatest impact on the news cycle -- an important consideration).
2) If neither candidate announces prior to the start of the Olympics on August 8th, there is almost no chance that the announcements will come during the Olympics. (In other words, if we don't hear from either Obama or McCain before August 8th, we almost certainly won't be hearing until after the end of the Olympics on August 24th. Neither campaign wants to compete for media or voter attention with the Olympics).
3) Obama absolutely has to name his running mate by August 27th, the third night of the Democratic Convention when the vice presidential candidate is officially nominated by the delegates to the convention.
4) McCain absolutely has to name his running mate by September 3rd, the third night of the Republican Convention when the vice presidential candidate is officially nominated by the delegates to the convention.
5) McCain will almost certainly not announce his choice right before Labor Day Weekend on August 29th as the news would be lost amidst most Americans enjoying their long holiday weekends.

So what can we deduce from all of this information? I think we can assume that one or both candidates may indeed be close to announcing his choice. Certainly in the case of Obama, if he does not announce before the Olympics begin on August 8th, he is boxing himself in given that his convention begins the day after the Olympics end. McCain, with the later convention, has more flexibility, though the Labor Day Weekend holiday complicates things for him too.

Are you with me so far? I hope so, because here come the predictions...

I suspect Barack Obama will name his running mate on one of the following days, with my guess for the most likely day in bold:
1) Thursday, July 31st (tomorrow);
2) Tuesday, August 5th;
3) Wednesday, August 6th;
4) Thursday, August 7th;
5) Monday, August 25th.

I suspect John McCain will name his running mate on one of the following days -- though his timing is likely subject to whether Obama names his prior to the Olympics -- with my guess for the most likely day in bold:
1) Thursday, July 31st (tomorrow);
2) Tuesday, August 5th;
3) Wednesday, August 6th;
4) Tuesday, September 2nd;
5) Wednesday, September 3rd.

If you're wondering why I think Obama will go on August 6th and McCain on September 3rd, here's why...

In the case of Obama, the Olympics complicate things greatly. He basically has to announce before they start or after they finish, and if he goes after they finish, he's already looking at Day 1 of the Democratic Convention. I suspect Obama would prefer to go after the Olympics, but if he does so, he would likely be announcing his choice on the Monday that his convention starts, not an ideal day of the week to garner the most attention. Further, if Obama waits until the start of his convention to name his pick, he risks the distraction of further speculation and debate over whether Hillary Clinton may be his running mate choice. Since -- in my opinion -- she won't be, he may actually need the weeks between the Olympics and the start of the convention to mend a few fences with Hillary supporters, and to give them time to reconcile themselves to the fact that their woman will likely have no place in a potential Obama Administration. Therefore I believe he needs to make his move pre-Beijing, and by announcing next Wednesday, he's guaranteed two or three days of wall-to-wall coverage before the Olympics capture the majority of Americans' attention.

As for McCain, I can see no real reason for him to beat Obama to the punch on this. In fact, I suspect McCain could easily be poised to alter his selection criteria or decision-making process in reaction to whomever Obama selects. For example, should Obama choose a white male, I would think the chances of McCain selecting a female running mate would increase -- if for nothing else to possibly win over any of those disenchanted former Hillary supporters so bitter that Obama did not pick Clinton as his #2 that they might consider supporting McCain. Like the Olympics for Obama, Labor Day Weekend is an inconvenience for McCain, and it would be unwise for him to announce his pick the day after Obama's big convention speech -- August 29th -- also the first day of Labor Day Weekend. So I think McCain waits, takes advantage of the political lull provided by the Olympics, and strategizes with his team about who best adds a jolt to his ticket, and who best trumps or at least offsets the person that Obama has chosen. Given the obvious public fascination with Obama, he should have no trouble in attracting voters to tune in to the coverage of his convention. The same cannot be said for McCain and the GOP Convention, however, and so if he waits until the last possible day to make his choice (the day that his running mate would be nominated at the convention), he would create a suspense and a buzz around the Republican Convention that otherwise wouldn't be there, intriguing voters and, not insignificantly, the media as well.

I hope you're staying with me. Now to the all-important question: Who will each select?

If you recall, I made my predictions on this question here last month, expressing my belief that Obama should select former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, and that McCain should pick Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Nunn remains in the running for Obama, but Jindal appears unlikely to be named the #2 for McCain, having seemingly removed himself from consideration last week, (though there is some debate as to whether or not he may still be in the running). So while I've still got a chance for my initial picks to be correct, I wouldn't put Nunn or Jindal at the top of my prediction lists anymore.

There's been a lot of buzz lately about a few candidates in both parties. For Obama and the Democrats, there was a bit of a media frenzy on Monday when word allegedly leaked that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine was at or near the top of Obama's short list. For McCain, meanwhile, the recent speculation has centered largely around former Massachusetts Governor (and former GOP presidential candidate) Mitt Romney, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. We should perhaps take all of this buzz with a grain of salt though, as it seems to me that the people about whom we hear the most in the run-up to the selections are rarely the ones who actually end up being chosen. Could this year be different? I think possibly so.

With that said, here are my categorized short lists...

Obama's Likely Choices:
1) Indiana Senator Evan Bayh
2) Delaware Senator Joe Biden
3) Virginia Governor Tim Kaine
4) Former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn
5) New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson
6) Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius

McCain's Likely Choices:
1) Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
2) Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
3) Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
4) Former Ohio Congressman Rob Portman
5) Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
6) South Dakota Senator John Thune

Obama's Long-Shot Choices:
1) Former Maine Senator George Mitchell
2) Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (a Republican)
3) New York Senator Hillary Clinton
4) Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill
5) Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano
6) New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (a Republican)

McCain's Long-Shot Choices:
1) Former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge
2) Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell
3) Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn
4) Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
5) Former Ohio Congressman John Kasich
6) Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison

So there you have it, folks. These are the men and women who I believe stand the best chance of being chosen by Obama and McCain as their running mates, and Wednesday, August 6th and Wednesday, September 3rd are the days, respectively, when I predict the picks will be announced.

But what do you think? I'd appreciate any thoughts or feedback you have, any reasons why you think these predictions will or will not pan out, and/or any questions or comments in general. Simply click on the comments section below to weigh in if you'd like.

In the meantime, stay tuned, and thanks for reading!

Randy Pausch: 1960-2008

Randy Pausch, the now famous author of The Last Lecture (and the subject and, in many ways, inspiration of my first blog entry here) died this morning after a long but valiant fight against cancer.

Dr. Pausch first gained prominence after delivering a speech that became known as "The Last Lecture" in September of last year. The speech became a YouTube/internet phenomenon, and before long, Pausch was appearing on The Oprah Winfrey Show, Good Morning America, Primetime Live, and elsewhere. The incredible attention and appreciation that were given to his speech led him to write the book, which quickly became a best-seller.

This brief video from The Wall Street Journal tells the story well. (Journal reporter Jeff Zaslow co-wrote The Last Lecture with Pausch):


Randy Pausch is survived by his wife, Jai, and three children: Dylan, Logan, and Chloe -- all, sadly, below the age of 7. Fortunately for them, their father's legacy and life lessons will live on for a long time to come, not only for them, but for the many others that Pausch inspired.

Lastly, I'll leave you with Randy Pausch in his own words. Here, in its entirety, is his remarkable "Last Lecture":

The Hard-Hitting, Unbiased & Impartial Obama Press Corps

There has been much talk over the last few weeks about the seemingly favorable nature of the media coverage Barack Obama has received during this campaign. To be sure, there are merits to both sides of the argument, and while I haven't weighed in on the debate in great detail, I tend to agree that the media are very fond of Obama, and that perhaps more than ever, their personal feelings have affected their coverage of the election.

Don't take my word for it, though, because sometimes, as the saying goes, a picture speaks a thousand words...

International Obamamania!

Apart from Barack Obama's acceptance speech at the Democratic Convention next month -- now set to be delivered not in the convention hall as is customary, but at Invesco Field, home of the Denver Broncos, in front of as many as 75,000 people -- today is shaping up to be one of the worst days for John McCain and his campaign.

The poster above was distributed over the last week by the Obama Campaign in Germany, in an attempt to maximize the number of people who will come out to hear Obama when he speaks at Berlin's Victory Column (his request to use the Brandenburg Gate as a venue for the speech having been denied) this afternoon.

The Obama Campaign is hoping -- even expecting, perhaps -- hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic and supportive Germans to turn out to hear the Illinois Senator when he speaks. The photos and video will be invaluable from a PR standpoint -- particularly as a means of contrasting the way a President Obama might be received by our allies with the way most perceive President Bush is received. It also won't hurt, the campaign knows, if his speech is compared with that of John F. Kennedy's in Berlin, the famous Ich Bin Ein Berliner speech.

Obama has proven himself to be a truly gifted orator, and I have no doubt that today's rhetoric and delivery will be masterful -- as will, I am sure, the stagecraft and presentation of the event, an area in which the Obama Campaign has excelled. There is no denying that this will be a highlight of Obama's candidacy, and that the images and footage are ones we'll see many more times between now and November.

Nothing McCain can do today (short of announcing his running mate) will trump this news, and for many Americans, the sight of someone who could be our next president being received with adoration in a foreign country will be electoral cat nip. As mentioned in my last post, the McCain Campaign has enough problems on its own without having to deal with an opponent and his campaign who are unquestionably on a roll.

It's Now or Never for McCain and His Campaign

What in the world is wrong with John McCain and his campaign? Granted, McCain is facing an uphill battle on many fronts. For one, anti-Bush and anti-Republican sentiment is stratospheric. As the current standard bearer of the GOP, McCain obviously begins at a severe disadvantage simply by association. When one factors in the phenomenon that is Barack Obama and his historic candidacy, McCain’s uphill climb becomes even steeper. Despite the enormous odds against him, though, McCain can still win this election, but only if he can stop being such a horrendous campaigner, and if his overall campaign can get its act together. Now.

As things stand now, there is simply no getting around the fact that McCain is a terrible campaigner. There are very few positives I can point to, and in direct disobedience of my Mom’s age-old admonition that if I don’t have something nice to say, I shouldn’t say anything at all, there are many aspects of John McCain the candidate that are in dire need of improvement. It’s no secret that McCain doesn’t exactly knock ‘em dead on the hustings, and so it’s hard to understand why someone in the campaign’s hierarchy would not have already taken immediate steps to at least attempt to correct some of McCain’s most glaring weaknesses on the stump.

First and foremost, when placed in front of a teleprompter, McCain makes George W. Bush look like a gifted orator. McCain is so amazingly robotic in his labored reading of the machine it’s almost comical (if it weren’t so painful). More often than not, it appears as though McCain is seeing the speech for the very first time as it scrolls down the glass screen in front of him. Why wouldn’t someone at the top of his campaign staff force McCain into some sort of a teleprompter “boot camp”? I know the saying about old dogs and new tricks, and sure, McCain is old, but even still, there has to be room for improvement! On Sunday, McCain spent the greater part of his day attending the Yankees game here in New York with Rudy Giuliani. I would argue that the several hours spent doing that would have been much better spent with McCain practicing and improving his delivery of scripted speeches. (Particularly now, with Obama on his vaunted overseas trip, dominating the airwaves and headlines, the time is perfect for McCain to go underground for a few days of an intense campaigning clinic). Team McCain would argue that prepared speeches aren’t his strength, and that he’s best in settings such as town hall meetings and others at which he can speak more extemporaneously. This is probably true, and that’s all well and good, but the reality is that some of the most important speeches to come in the campaign are prepared speeches such as his GOP Convention acceptance speech. Naturally, these are also the ones that that will garner the most media attention and therefore voter attention, too. As such, it remains imperative that McCain improve his delivery of speeches from a prepared text or a teleprompter.

Next on the syllabus would be figuring out some way to stop McCain from laughing at his own jokes, particularly with the evil-sounding chuckle he is prone to emit – often at the most inopportune and inappropriate of times. On a related note, McCain is also given to displaying a smile that looks as forced as it obviously is. Third on the to-do list would be to remove the phrase “my friends” – something he repeats with an almost compulsive zeal – from his public speaking vocabulary. Seriously, how hard would it be to sit him down and force him to watch a few hours of video of his stilted, stiff delivery with clips of his chuckle, his forced smile and his “my friends” thrown in for good measure? McCain’s no idiot. He’s been in politics for three decades and certainly knows good political theater when he sees it. Surely he’d recognize his own shortcomings – at least to some extent – and be driven to make corrections, right? There are people in Washington who are paid solely to provide this sort of critique and instruction, and since his campaign staff seems unable to correct these tendencies, McCain could benefit mightily from their tutelage.

All the blame cannot be placed solely on McCain, though, since any politician relies heavily on his staff and advisors to put him in the best possible position to avoid mistakes. I’m not even sure anymore who is running the McCain Campaign, so often have been its “reorganizations” and “reshufflings”. I am sure, however, that at least in theory, the person running it now and the people who have previously run it would be individuals with experience in presidential politics and at least a fair amount of political acumen. Given the track record of the campaign, though, sometimes it seems like the campaign is being run by a bunch of political rookies with a shockingly severe tin ear to the politics of today and the overall sentiments of the electorate.

One event thus far in this election absolutely epitomizes the ineptitude of those running McCain’s campaign (and to some extent, of the candidate himself). On the night that Obama clinched the Democratic Nomination last month, he was set to deliver a victory speech of sorts in front of tens of thousands of supporters at the Xcel Energy Center – not coincidentally the site of the Republican National Convention in September – in Minneapolis-Saint Paul, Minnesota. McCain has shown no propensity for attracting crowds a tenth as large (or as enthusiastic) as those of Obama, and on a night when Obama was sure to dominate the coverage after securing the nomination, the smart political move on the part of McCain and his campaign would have been simply to cede the stage and spotlight to him. There should have been a recognition that McCain cannot compete with Obama in a direct comparison of campaign events, and to attempt to do so would not only be futile, it would be damaging.

But there was no such recognition, and what the McCain campaign offered up was shocking in its dreadfulness. Appearing in Kenner, Louisiana, McCain spoke to supporters and, unfortunately for him, all of the cable news networks covered it live. It’s hard to know where to begin with the many things wrong with this event. To start, the venue was dismal, some sort of warehouse or hangar – stark, dark and depressing. Making matters worse, the space was at best half full, showing obvious empty space that could have been filled by supporters. Further, for the first time (and mercifully, for the last time, too), the backdrop chosen by the McCain Campaign operatives running the event was some sort of strange green color – “puke green” truly describes it best – which, when coupled with the insufficient and inferior lighting in the room only added to the malaise already permeating the appearance. To call the crowd’s reactions tepid would be charitable, and I got the sense that they would have benefited greatly from an “APPLAUSE” sign like those used on game shows. And to call the crowd homogenous would be an understatement, as I do not remember seeing anything resembling a broad representation of ethnicities or even genders. Despite knowing that the networks would likely cut away from McCain to “officially” announce Obama’s securing the nomination – and knowing when it would happen – the campaign did not get McCain started on time and so indeed, the networks did simply abandon McCain mid-speech – a blessing in disguise as it turned out, but an accidental and purely serendipitous one. The cherry on top was McCain himself, delivering a long-winded speech via teleprompter that was embarrassingly awful to watch and hear – even by the aforementioned low bar McCain had already set for himself. He even threw in a healthy dose of chuckling or forced smiling – often timing it with each repetition of the speech’s tag line, “That’s not change we can believe in”, as though it were a hilarious joke.Don't just take my word for it, though...

Pretty rough, wasn't it? The broader problem is that so much of what made that entire event so bad is symptomatic of what’s making the overall McCain Campaign itself so bad right now.

Already facing a rather extraordinary candidate and campaign in Obama and his operation, competing with a news media almost laughably shilling for his opponent, and having to fight the anti-Republican, anti-incumbent tides to boot, McCain doesn’t need nor can he afford to do Obama any more favors by continuing to flounder on the campaign trail. Despite all of this, victory remains a possibility for him, but it won’t for long unless McCain and his campaign rise to the occasion. While McCain will never out-campaign or out-speak Obama and since his campaign will certainly not out-strategize or out-maneuver the Obama Campaign, he must become a more disciplined and eloquent campaigner, and his campaign must simultaneously correct his weaknesses while accentuating his strengths. There’s a long time between now and Election Day, but the changes for McCain and his campaign need to start immediately.

(This post can also be seen at Splice Today: http://splicetoday.com/).

Bragging Writes Was On Vacation...

Sorry for not posting anything of late. We were on vacation and have been digging out since returning. I'll be posting something by this weekend or the first part of next week at the latest!

Change We Can Believe In?

So much of Barack Obama’s appeal – not only to voters and those supporting him, but also to the media who barely try to conceal their adoration of him – has been his claim of being a different politician practicing a new kind of politics, “change we can believe in”. To his and his campaign’s credit, this image and message have been crafted to near-perfection, and while I can’t prove it, I suspect that if most Americans were asked to play a word association game, “change” is the word most would choose when presented with Obama’s name.

Indeed, Obama has been an incredible candidate. His rhetoric, both in terms of its content and his speaking style, are nothing short of awesome. Some might argue that the content of his speeches lacks substance, but perhaps in a so-called “change election”, that’s what the voters want to hear. Listening to Obama speak, I can only imagine that the experience must be akin to those who had the opportunity to hear Martin Luther King, Jr. speak. His tone, his cadence, his pitch – all are delivered with an almost intoxicating quality to which one cannot help but be drawn.

Further, his campaign has been run with a precision and a discipline unlike any of the Democratic candidates who preceded him. The Obama Campaign’s ability to stay “on message” and to effectively convey that message is impressive to say the least. Even the seemingly little things such as the backdrops to his speeches or the settings of his press conferences are done with precision, and believe it or not, these things matter, even if perhaps only in the observer’s subconscious. Of course nothing speaks louder than his proven ability to attract tens of thousands of people to a campaign rally, coverage of which is public relations gold that surely has the McCain Campaign green with envy.

But as Obama’s opponent, John McCain might say, “let’s have some straight talk”. Over the last few months – the last few weeks in particular – Obama and his campaign have made some choices and taken some actions that reveal his claim of being a different kind of politician practicing a different kind of politics to be nothing more than a superficial veneer. To be sure, some of this was to be expected, and for the most part would have to be considered prudent. These maneuvers do not make Obama a bad person, or any more dishonest or beholden to the politically expedient than McCain or any other politician, but they do – or should – effectively rob him of his ability to cast himself as a political Robin Hood, a flawless crusader of hope and change.

The first chink in Obama’s armor of change came courtesy of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. In a much-celebrated speech in Philadelphia on March 18th, Obama famously said that he could “no more disown [Reverend Wright] than [he could his] white grandmother”. After a few more inflammatory speeches by Wright however, Obama did, in fact, disown him. Again, his choice to do so was certainly prudent, but not the choice that the principled public servant Obama portrays himself as would have made. This was a decision made out of political expediency, period.

More recently (and more alarmingly), Obama reversed himself again. This time it was the issue of whether or not to accept public funding for his general election campaign. No candidate since the system was enacted after Watergate has ever opted out of the system. Obama himself signed a pledge in which he promised to take public funding, and in a debate in April, he indicated that he would “sit down with John McCain” if he won the Democratic Nomination so that the two could discuss the issue and make a fair agreement. Campaign finance reform has been a signature issue for Obama in his brief legislative career, something for which he has won a great deal of praise. Several weeks ago, though, Obama announced that he would be opting out of the public funding, relying instead on his legions of donors, both large and small. While again this was the prudent choice, it was pure political calculation, made worse by the bogus justification he offered as to why he was making this choice. He argued that Republicans and so-called 527 groups (like the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in the 2004 Election) would spend millions against him, and that in deciding to opt out, he was only ensuring a level playing field for himself. The reality is that there are currently no anti-Obama 527 groups in existence, and apparently none on the horizon, either. In fact, the only 527 ad currently airing is a pathetic anti-McCain, anti-Iraq War “Not Alex” ad funded by the Democratic 527, Moveon.Org and the union, AFSCME. By opting out of the $85 million in public funding (also an effective $85 million limit on spending) he would have received, Obama is now capable – and likely to – raise hundreds of millions of dollars, allowing him to overwhelmingly outspend McCain, who has indicated that he will accept the $85 million. This will give Obama an almost incalculable advantage in the last few months of the campaign, and is the sort of action that, had a Republican taken it, would have had elicited vociferous objections and righteous indignation from the Obama camp and the media. The playing field will be anything but level.

Last week, Obama changed positions again on two separate issues: the FISA Bill in the Senate, and the handgun ban in Washington, DC. His campaign stated in no uncertain terms last fall that any FISA Bill legislation that included legal immunity for the telecommunications companies would be met with an Obama-led filibuster. When the bill came to the floor last week, Obama not only failed to filibuster, he voted for it – telecom immunity and all. While this was a part of the inevitable move to the center that candidates from both parties make after securing their respective nominations, it flew in the face of the sort of change Obama promises. When the Supreme Court last week overturned the DC gun ban, Obama expressed no objection to it, and even issued a statement in which he dubiously indicated that he had always supported an individual’s right to bear arms. Here, the Obama campaign surely concluded that by offering his tacit agreement, Obama could pacify the moderate Democrats in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio – the same Democrats Obama infamously said “cling to their guns”. This was the politically advantageous move to make with an eye on the general election, but it was also a misleading statement in reaction to the court’s decision, and it marked the latest in a string of instances in which Obama eschewed the high road of hope for the low road of “the same old Washington politics”.

As the Oval Office has become more and more a very real possibility for Obama, he has on several occasions now shown himself to be nothing more than just another politician. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that on its face, of course; candidates will always do what it takes to win. But in doing so, Obama can no longer sincerely claim to be the shiny, new departure from the political norm, and the media have a responsibility to stop portraying him as such. With the latter unlikely to happen, though, the former becomes even more improbable, and that’s not “change we can believe in” anymore.