It's Groundhog Day for the Democrats

On Groundhog Day every February 2nd in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the world's most famous groundhog, "Punxsutawney Phil" emerges from his burrow amid great fanfare. If Phil sees his shadow, the legend holds that we can expect six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, we can look forward to an early spring.

Today, Punxsutawney -- and all of Pennsylvania -- will take center stage again to offer another prognostication of what lies ahead. The Pennsylvania Primary is today, and the political stakes are enormous for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as they continue to battle for the Democratic Nomination. Today we wait to find out if we can expect six more weeks of what is quickly becoming a political winter for the Democratic Party, or if spring will finally arrive for Obama and his supporters. Pennsylvania, we again leave our fate in your hands!

In the latest RealClearPolitics "RCP Average" of the Pennsylvania polls, Clinton holds a 6.1 point lead over Obama, reflecting a much closer race than even a few weeks ago when she led by double digits. So let's look at four potential outcomes of this political Groundhog Day, and what each outcome would likely mean for the Democrats...

1) Barack Obama beats Hillary Clinton: In this scenario, Spring will arrive in all its glory for the Obama Campaign and their supporters. If he is victorious in Pennsylvania -- regardless of the margin -- the race for the Democratic Nomination will be over. Hillary will face insurmountable pressure to withdraw from the race, and the remaining undeclared superdelegates will begin flocking to Obama. Even Clinton -- as tough (stubborn?) as she is -- would realize that it would be time to go.

2) Hillary Clinton beats Barack Obama by 5 points or less: This scenario would be characterized as a narrow victory for Clinton and, while it would be a victory, I do not believe it would be by a margin large enough to allow her campaign to continue. I suspect that in an outcome like this, Hillary would continue to argue that she should continue her campaign, and perhaps her absolute most die-hard supporters would back her up on that. But many Democrats -- and even many current (if less die-hard) Clinton supporters and superdelegates -- would begin a noisy call for her to quit, and I think it would be just loud enough to force the issue.

3) Clinton beats Obama by 6 - 10 points: Based on the most recent polls, this is the most likely outcome, and the political ramifications of this outcome are the hardest to predict. After Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas six weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that she probably needed to go on to win in Pennsylvania by at least 10 points. As Obama has flooded the airwaves with ads and as the voters of Pennsylvania have begun to pay more attention, the race has become closer, and as it stands now, I think that Clinton and her campaign have possibly managed to (somehow) successfully lower expectations to the point that a victory of this magnitude would allow her to continue -- at least through the Indiana and North Carolina Primaries in two weeks. There will still be some calls for Clinton to bow out, but I think this scenario would lead to her surviving at least two more weeks.

4) Clinton beats Obama by 10+ points: If Hillary wins by 10 or more points, the Democratic nomination contest is likely headed for six more weeks of what has already been a long winter for the party. (Quite frankly, this would really more like hell for the party, so if it's any consolation to the Democrats, the weather should actually be quite balmy)! Should she manage to beat him this soundly today, Hillary and her campaign will absolutely continue through Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks, and probably for several weeks beyond that including West Virginia on May 13th, Oregon and Kentucky on May 20th, and Puerto Rico on June 1st. Additionally, this may initiate a period of real concern and doubt about Obama's strength as a candidate -- to the point that it could do the improbable and resuscitate the Clinton Campaign. On the other hand, this is the best-case scenario not only for Hillary and her supporters, but for John McCain and his too. There is absolutely no doubt that the continuing squabble between Clinton and Obama has helped McCain, and were that to continue (most likely with increased acrimony and negativity), he would only continue to reap the rewards.

The protracted fight we are now witnessing between Senators Clinton and Obama for the Democratic Nomination is rather extraordinary, really. At this point, I can see no truly legitimate or plausible way that Hillary will be able to wrest the nomination from Obama's grasp. His advantages in terms of his delegate lead, his popular vote lead, his financial lead and even his lead in sheer momentum are nearly impossible for her to overcome. Even if Hillary were to somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, the resulting damage to the Democratic Party and the fracturing within it would be catastrophic. Additionally, I can think of no candidate other than Hillary who would not have already faced overwhelming pressure to relent by now. It's a testament to her remarkable ambition, that (in)famous Clintonian "never say die" spirit, and the fact that she is a unique candidate as the first plausible female candidate, and a former First Lady at that. This has been a truly historic and exciting election year so far, and if the nomination contests have been indicative of what we can expect from the general election, it will be one fascinating summer and fall for political junkies everywhere!

Wanna Get Away? So Do Republicans...

All vacations are good. Some vacations, though, are better than others. A truly great vacation is marked by the ability to all but forget the worries or stresses of work or home awaiting your return. Then, before you know it, there are only three days left, then two days, and soon those concerns and anxieties creep back into your consciousness. And while you know the end is near and the real world must soon be faced again, another drink, another swim, or any of the other wonderful distractions of the trip allow you to sweep it all under the rug for just a bit longer. But deep down, you know what’s coming on Monday morning.

If this sounds familiar to you or is something you’ve experienced, then you – regardless of political affiliation – know what it feels like to be a Republican today. Because today and for the last two months, Republicans have effectively been on a vacation courtesy of the Democratic Party.

For Republicans, the best part of the ongoing nomination battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is that with the focus squarely on the increasingly hostile and internecine squabble between the two candidates, the GOP faithful have been able to temporarily forget the candidate who they will put forth against the Democrats’ ultimate victor in November.

A stronger Republican candidate would be much better than tied with or slightly trailing Clinton and Obama in general election polls. A GOP candidate with solid and sincere support from the party’s base would see his campaign coffers overflowing with contributions. Neither is the case for John McCain, however.

Despite the thumping that Obama took at Wednesday night’s debate and despite the fact that it will “take a village” to convince Hillary Clinton to drop out, the reality is that this wonderful trip is coming to an end sooner than the GOP would like to think. Even if Hillary holds on to win in Pennsylvania, current polls indicate she’ll likely lose to Obama in both Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later, putting the nail in the coffin of her presidential hopes, and putting an end to the Republican vacation.

Over the last two months, Republicans have delighted in watching Obama squirm under the uncomfortable scrutiny of the Reverend Wright controversy, then watched in amazement as the media seemed to forget it entirely while tripping over themselves to exalt his much-ballyhooed “More Perfect Union” speech about race in America. GOP voters again high-fived as the Illinois Senator stuck his foot in his mouth last week in San Francisco, declaring that small-town voters in Pennsylvania are “bitter” and “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”, then again watching as he apparently suffered no backlash in the polls as a result.

If Ronald Reagan was “the Teflon President”, many Republicans probably think they are seeing the closest thing to a Teflon Candidate in Barack Obama. While Obama’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities are apparent and likely not yet fully discovered, an honest Republican would admit that Obama and his campaign show every sign of being winners. This is evident in the size of the crowds he attracts, the frenzy into which he whips those crowds, and the staggering fundraising totals he has continued to post every month.

An honest Republican would also accept the reality that current political circumstances nearly guarantee a Democratic victory in November. The Republican incumbent continues to garner anemic approval ratings, the economy is hurting, and the Iraq War remains very unpopular among the majority of Americans. Perhaps a truly phenomenal GOP candidate could overcome these long odds, but even then, probably only with the help of a horrendous (think Dukakis or worse) Democratic nominee.

John McCain, though, is not a truly phenomenal candidate, and Barack Obama has shown no sign that he would be a horrendous nominee – particularly if the majority of the media remain in the tank for him, and if the majority of voters continue to ignore some very real concerns about him, seemingly transfixed by his brilliant and eloquent (if empty) rhetoric.

Is an Obama victory a foregone conclusion? Not definitely. A lot can happen between now and November – both geopolitically and on the campaign trail – that could alter the electoral landscape in ways impossible to predict today. McCain could catch fire somehow, or Obama could crash and burn. All of these what-ifs and contingencies, however, are the stuff of happy thoughts born of the surf, sun and umbrella drinks the Democrats have given Republicans over the last two months.

Unfortunately for Republicans, when the alarm clock goes off on the last day of this wonderful getaway, they will awaken to the harsh truth that John McCain just doesn’t feel like a winner in November – a deep-down realization that while hard to accept, is impossible to ignore – even while on vacation.

(This post can also be seen at Splice Today: http://splicetoday.com/).

None of Our Business ???

By now, almost everyone has heard about the two uncomfortable encounters that Chelsea Clinton has had on the campaign trail over the last few weeks.

The first instance was at Butler University in Indianapolis two weeks ago as Chelsea made another of the many college campus appearances she has made in the last few months on behalf of her mother, Senator Hillary Clinton, and her presidential campaign. While taking questions from the audience of college students, Chelsea was asked by Butler student Evan Strange – a Clinton supporter – whether Hillary’s handling of the Monica Lewinsky scandal that engulfed Bill Clinton’s administration had damaged her mother’s credibility. Chelsea appeared taken aback by the question, responding:

“Wow, you’re the first person actually that’s ever asked me that question in the, I don’t know maybe, 70 college campuses I’ve now been to, and I do not think that is any of your business”.

(Here's the clip if you'd like to watch for yourself):

Not surprisingly given the media attention Strange’s question received, another college student made a similar attempt early last week. At North Carolina State University in Raleigh last Monday, N.C. State student Bryce Davis asked Miss Clinton essentially the same question. Chelsea’s response was likewise similar, dismissing Davis by telling him, “It’s none of your business”. Davis disagreed, however, and pressed on, indicating that he felt it was, in fact, his business given that Bill Clinton – Chelsea’s father and Hillary’s husband – was President of the United States when the scandal unfolded. Chelsea was unconvinced, however, and stuck to her guns:

“Well sir, I respectfully disagree. I think that is something that is personal to my family and I’m sure there are things that are personal to your family that you don’t think are anyone’s business either”.

(Again, here's the clip if you'd like to see and hear it):

Let me first express my sympathy for any child who has to observe and endure significant marital problems between his or her parents, particularly when those problems involve something as painful and destructive as adultery. In many ways, I have even more sympathy for Chelsea Clinton given that she had to observe and endure her parents’ issues along with the rest of the world.

With that said, if Hillary Clinton (presumably with Bill Clinton’s knowledge and approval) is going to use her daughter as a campaign surrogate and expect her to be able to answer complex questions about the details of Hillary’s health care plan, for example, how can Chelsea not be expected to address an issue that, while undoubtedly painful and arguably private to her, was certainly not private by conventional standards? If the same parents who so admirably protected Chelsea during their White House years are now willing to use Chelsea as the political asset she appears to be, that bubble of protection that has previously surrounded her no longer applies, and therefore no question, whether it be about health care, foreign policy, or even the Lewinsky scandal, should be off-limits.

Further, it is my belief that Davis was correct. While what her father did with Lewinsky may have been “personal to [her] family” for Chelsea, he did it on government property and on government time. The American people elected Clinton to run the country, not to run around on his wife. In addition, by lying to the people (not to mention perjuring himself under oath) and by sending his wife – now presidential candidate Clinton – out to propagate that lie, Bill made it our business.

For Hillary’s part, how can she claim to have “over sixteen years of experience”, thereby including her time as First Lady, but then expect that she and her campaign can pick and choose the aspects of those sixteen years that they wish to be considered? In this respect, Strange was correct, because he was almost certainly referring principally to Hillary’s infamous appearance on NBC’s The Today Show in the first days of the Lewinsky scandal. After spending the first part of her interview with Matt Lauer dodging questions and denying the accusations that her husband had engaged in and lied about an affair with Lewinsky, Hillary made the following comment:

“This is – the great story here for anybody willing to find it and write about it and explain it – is this vast right-wing conspiracy that has been conspiring against my husband since the day he announced for president”.

As we now know, and as I feel certain she knew then, the allegations were true, and regardless of the existence of any “vast right-wing conspiracy”, Hillary was joining with her husband in an effort to mislead the American people to secure his (and her) political survival. How, then, can her credibility not be an issue – a question only underscored by her recent admission that she “misspoke” about landing “under sniper fire” in Bosnia in 1996?

Perhaps if Hillary (and Bill) didn’t have a consistent record of misleading statements, the questions posed to Chelsea would be irrelevant and would be “none of [our] business”. Perhaps if Hillary had said to Matt Lauer that day, “It’s none of your business”, Chelsea could now rightfully do the same. She did not, however, and Chelsea cannot either.

Note: Recently I was asked to contribute a weekly column on a new website called Splice Today. My first effort -- this very post -- was posted on Friday. Please visit Splice if you have a moment (http://splicetoday.com/), not only to check out my weekly piece, but also for the other thoughtful writing and commentary that can be found there. My Splice column will be political in nature every other week at most. (I'll keep the majority of the political commentary here at Bragging Writes).