It's Groundhog Day for the Democrats

On Groundhog Day every February 2nd in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the world's most famous groundhog, "Punxsutawney Phil" emerges from his burrow amid great fanfare. If Phil sees his shadow, the legend holds that we can expect six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, we can look forward to an early spring.

Today, Punxsutawney -- and all of Pennsylvania -- will take center stage again to offer another prognostication of what lies ahead. The Pennsylvania Primary is today, and the political stakes are enormous for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as they continue to battle for the Democratic Nomination. Today we wait to find out if we can expect six more weeks of what is quickly becoming a political winter for the Democratic Party, or if spring will finally arrive for Obama and his supporters. Pennsylvania, we again leave our fate in your hands!

In the latest RealClearPolitics "RCP Average" of the Pennsylvania polls, Clinton holds a 6.1 point lead over Obama, reflecting a much closer race than even a few weeks ago when she led by double digits. So let's look at four potential outcomes of this political Groundhog Day, and what each outcome would likely mean for the Democrats...

1) Barack Obama beats Hillary Clinton: In this scenario, Spring will arrive in all its glory for the Obama Campaign and their supporters. If he is victorious in Pennsylvania -- regardless of the margin -- the race for the Democratic Nomination will be over. Hillary will face insurmountable pressure to withdraw from the race, and the remaining undeclared superdelegates will begin flocking to Obama. Even Clinton -- as tough (stubborn?) as she is -- would realize that it would be time to go.

2) Hillary Clinton beats Barack Obama by 5 points or less: This scenario would be characterized as a narrow victory for Clinton and, while it would be a victory, I do not believe it would be by a margin large enough to allow her campaign to continue. I suspect that in an outcome like this, Hillary would continue to argue that she should continue her campaign, and perhaps her absolute most die-hard supporters would back her up on that. But many Democrats -- and even many current (if less die-hard) Clinton supporters and superdelegates -- would begin a noisy call for her to quit, and I think it would be just loud enough to force the issue.

3) Clinton beats Obama by 6 - 10 points: Based on the most recent polls, this is the most likely outcome, and the political ramifications of this outcome are the hardest to predict. After Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas six weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that she probably needed to go on to win in Pennsylvania by at least 10 points. As Obama has flooded the airwaves with ads and as the voters of Pennsylvania have begun to pay more attention, the race has become closer, and as it stands now, I think that Clinton and her campaign have possibly managed to (somehow) successfully lower expectations to the point that a victory of this magnitude would allow her to continue -- at least through the Indiana and North Carolina Primaries in two weeks. There will still be some calls for Clinton to bow out, but I think this scenario would lead to her surviving at least two more weeks.

4) Clinton beats Obama by 10+ points: If Hillary wins by 10 or more points, the Democratic nomination contest is likely headed for six more weeks of what has already been a long winter for the party. (Quite frankly, this would really more like hell for the party, so if it's any consolation to the Democrats, the weather should actually be quite balmy)! Should she manage to beat him this soundly today, Hillary and her campaign will absolutely continue through Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks, and probably for several weeks beyond that including West Virginia on May 13th, Oregon and Kentucky on May 20th, and Puerto Rico on June 1st. Additionally, this may initiate a period of real concern and doubt about Obama's strength as a candidate -- to the point that it could do the improbable and resuscitate the Clinton Campaign. On the other hand, this is the best-case scenario not only for Hillary and her supporters, but for John McCain and his too. There is absolutely no doubt that the continuing squabble between Clinton and Obama has helped McCain, and were that to continue (most likely with increased acrimony and negativity), he would only continue to reap the rewards.

The protracted fight we are now witnessing between Senators Clinton and Obama for the Democratic Nomination is rather extraordinary, really. At this point, I can see no truly legitimate or plausible way that Hillary will be able to wrest the nomination from Obama's grasp. His advantages in terms of his delegate lead, his popular vote lead, his financial lead and even his lead in sheer momentum are nearly impossible for her to overcome. Even if Hillary were to somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, the resulting damage to the Democratic Party and the fracturing within it would be catastrophic. Additionally, I can think of no candidate other than Hillary who would not have already faced overwhelming pressure to relent by now. It's a testament to her remarkable ambition, that (in)famous Clintonian "never say die" spirit, and the fact that she is a unique candidate as the first plausible female candidate, and a former First Lady at that. This has been a truly historic and exciting election year so far, and if the nomination contests have been indicative of what we can expect from the general election, it will be one fascinating summer and fall for political junkies everywhere!