Even though tonight's Democratic Debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is still underway, I feel confident in the following prediction:
It's Over.
Hillary will lose Texas on Tuesday.
Hillary will lose Ohio on Tuesday.
And therefore, Hillary will lose the Democratic Nomination.
Put differently, Obama has won the battle tonight, and more importantly, he has won the war.
Prepare for the 2008 Presidential Election:
Senator John McCain vs. Senator Barack Obama
More later this week...
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Prepare to See a LOT of This...
Last night, as is customary, both the Obama and Clinton Campaigns sent out surrogates to appear on the various cable news channels. These men and women -- often elected officials or aides to the candidates -- are tasked with touting the strengths of their candidate, and with trying to frame the results of the latest contest in the most positive way possible for their candidate.
After Obama's shellacking of Clinton last night, one would think that the Clinton surrogates would have a far more difficult job in making lemonades out of the Wisconsin Primary lemons, and that anyone speaking on behalf of Obama would have no problem boosting the Illinois Senator. After all, it now appears almost certain that the Illinois Senator is headed for the Democratic Nomination. Perhaps, though, that's easier said than done (or easier said than said on national television)...take a look:
Wow. Painful to watch, wasn't it? Moving beyond the train-wreck entertainment value of this interview, however, the inability of Texas State Senator Kirk Watson -- an Obama surrogate dispatched to MSNBC last night -- to cite one single legislative accomplishment of Obama's not only indicates the need for a new surrogate, it also -- and more seriously -- points to a potential weakness for Obama in the weeks and months ahead.
Senator Watson basically personified the argument that Hillary Clinton has been trying to make in the last week: essentially that Obama is all talk and no action. The danger for the Obama Campaign, however, is that there may be some truth to that. His legislative record is, in fact, unimpressive, at least partially due to the fact that he is only four years into his first term in the Senate -- two years of which he has now spent campaigning for president.
Wasting no time, Hillary Clinton has already seized on the Watson interview in her campaign appearances this morning. And it won't stop there. I would expect the Clinton Campaign to produce a television ad including this clip very soon, and I would further expect John McCain's campaign to file the clip away for use in the General Election should Obama indeed become the Democratic Nominee. Either way, I suspect this will be just the first of many times we will see this clip between now and November.
After Obama's shellacking of Clinton last night, one would think that the Clinton surrogates would have a far more difficult job in making lemonades out of the Wisconsin Primary lemons, and that anyone speaking on behalf of Obama would have no problem boosting the Illinois Senator. After all, it now appears almost certain that the Illinois Senator is headed for the Democratic Nomination. Perhaps, though, that's easier said than done (or easier said than said on national television)...take a look:
Wow. Painful to watch, wasn't it? Moving beyond the train-wreck entertainment value of this interview, however, the inability of Texas State Senator Kirk Watson -- an Obama surrogate dispatched to MSNBC last night -- to cite one single legislative accomplishment of Obama's not only indicates the need for a new surrogate, it also -- and more seriously -- points to a potential weakness for Obama in the weeks and months ahead.
Senator Watson basically personified the argument that Hillary Clinton has been trying to make in the last week: essentially that Obama is all talk and no action. The danger for the Obama Campaign, however, is that there may be some truth to that. His legislative record is, in fact, unimpressive, at least partially due to the fact that he is only four years into his first term in the Senate -- two years of which he has now spent campaigning for president.
Wasting no time, Hillary Clinton has already seized on the Watson interview in her campaign appearances this morning. And it won't stop there. I would expect the Clinton Campaign to produce a television ad including this clip very soon, and I would further expect John McCain's campaign to file the clip away for use in the General Election should Obama indeed become the Democratic Nominee. Either way, I suspect this will be just the first of many times we will see this clip between now and November.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Obama's On Fire
Wow. It's not even 10:00pm and it's already evident that Barack Obama has defeated Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin. It appears he may have done so by a very healthy margin, too. When the networks called Wisconsin for Obama -- his ninth straight victory -- I said to my wife, "Obama's on fire".
He also seems to be becoming more comfortable with his role as the frontrunner given that he began his victory speech even as Hillary was still in the process of giving her concession speech -- a violation of unwritten campaign etiquette. (To be fair, she also violated the unwritten rules by not offering her congratulations to Obama for his win in Wisconsin. In fact, she did not even acknowledge that the primary had occurred).
Anyway, as I switched between the three cable news networks, I stopped as Hillary began speaking in Ohio. My wife, glancing up from her book, put it best: "Hillary looks sleepy". And indeed, she did look tired, and quite frankly, she looked like someone who is about to lose her tenth straight primary or caucus. (She will almost certainly lose the Hawaii Caucus when those results are released later tonight).
The contrast between the two is also telling. When Obama effectively pre-empted Hillary and the networks all switched to his speech, not only was the size of his crowd larger, but the energy level of the crowd was demonstrably higher. My wife then looked up at Obama speaking. "Wow," she said. "He is on fire."
Unfortunately for Hillary, my wife is likely representative of most Americans: she is following the campaign, but perhaps not fully engaged yet. Nights like these are when my wife and millions of others do look up from their books, their computers, or whatever it is they may be doing, and do pay attention. And for those forming opinions based on what they see tonight, Obama looks like a winner and Hillary looks like a loser -- it's just that simple.
This is the impression that people will be left with now for the next two weeks -- two weeks with no primaries or caucuses in which Hillary can even conceivably mount a comeback. There are, however, two debates before the crucial March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio -- now officially do-or-die contests for Hillary -- and those will be the only real opportunities she will have to shift the dynamics of this race in her favor. If she fails to do so, Obama will beat her on March 4th, and the race for the Democratic Nomination will be over.
If the Clintons have "dirt" on Obama, look for it to come out in the next two weeks. Look for Hillary to be extremely aggressive in the two debates. She has no choice. Things have been headed in this direction for a few weeks now as the momentum has gradually shifted towards Obama, but now it's official: Hillary and her campaign are truly on the ropes, and Barack Obama, without a doubt, is on fire.
He also seems to be becoming more comfortable with his role as the frontrunner given that he began his victory speech even as Hillary was still in the process of giving her concession speech -- a violation of unwritten campaign etiquette. (To be fair, she also violated the unwritten rules by not offering her congratulations to Obama for his win in Wisconsin. In fact, she did not even acknowledge that the primary had occurred).
Anyway, as I switched between the three cable news networks, I stopped as Hillary began speaking in Ohio. My wife, glancing up from her book, put it best: "Hillary looks sleepy". And indeed, she did look tired, and quite frankly, she looked like someone who is about to lose her tenth straight primary or caucus. (She will almost certainly lose the Hawaii Caucus when those results are released later tonight).
The contrast between the two is also telling. When Obama effectively pre-empted Hillary and the networks all switched to his speech, not only was the size of his crowd larger, but the energy level of the crowd was demonstrably higher. My wife then looked up at Obama speaking. "Wow," she said. "He is on fire."
Unfortunately for Hillary, my wife is likely representative of most Americans: she is following the campaign, but perhaps not fully engaged yet. Nights like these are when my wife and millions of others do look up from their books, their computers, or whatever it is they may be doing, and do pay attention. And for those forming opinions based on what they see tonight, Obama looks like a winner and Hillary looks like a loser -- it's just that simple.
This is the impression that people will be left with now for the next two weeks -- two weeks with no primaries or caucuses in which Hillary can even conceivably mount a comeback. There are, however, two debates before the crucial March 4th primaries in Texas and Ohio -- now officially do-or-die contests for Hillary -- and those will be the only real opportunities she will have to shift the dynamics of this race in her favor. If she fails to do so, Obama will beat her on March 4th, and the race for the Democratic Nomination will be over.
If the Clintons have "dirt" on Obama, look for it to come out in the next two weeks. Look for Hillary to be extremely aggressive in the two debates. She has no choice. Things have been headed in this direction for a few weeks now as the momentum has gradually shifted towards Obama, but now it's official: Hillary and her campaign are truly on the ropes, and Barack Obama, without a doubt, is on fire.
A Test for Obama "The Frontrunner"
Today there are two Democratic contests, the Wisconsin Primary and the Hawaii Caucus. (Wisconsin will also hold it's Republican Primary today, but with John McCain already the presumptive nominee, that contest is understandably receiving little attention).
Returning to the Democrats, however, what happens in Wisconsin today -- and in Hawaii as well, to a lesser extent -- is important to both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Obama did indeed defeat Hillary in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia last Tuesday, and because he did so in decisive fashion, he has (as predicted here last week) cemented his status as the "frontrunner" for the Democratic Nomination. As I also predicted, the stories came fast and furious about Hillary's imminent demise, and we even saw the first postmortems for exactly why her once "inevitable" campaign for the nomination had crashed and burned. Most believe (and the polls show) that Obama will win both Wisconsin and his home state of Hawaii today, and he is clearly riding a powerful wave of momentum. And sure, while today Obama has a delegate lead of more than 100 delegates, and while it seems that he has enough momentum and buzz to continue his string of primary and caucus victories all the way to the nomination, it ain't over 'til the [Clinton] lady sings. Here are several reasons why I believe the media, the pundits, and even the Obama campaign itself, are premature in their belief that the Democratic Nomination is his:
Returning to the Democrats, however, what happens in Wisconsin today -- and in Hawaii as well, to a lesser extent -- is important to both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Obama did indeed defeat Hillary in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia last Tuesday, and because he did so in decisive fashion, he has (as predicted here last week) cemented his status as the "frontrunner" for the Democratic Nomination. As I also predicted, the stories came fast and furious about Hillary's imminent demise, and we even saw the first postmortems for exactly why her once "inevitable" campaign for the nomination had crashed and burned. Most believe (and the polls show) that Obama will win both Wisconsin and his home state of Hawaii today, and he is clearly riding a powerful wave of momentum. And sure, while today Obama has a delegate lead of more than 100 delegates, and while it seems that he has enough momentum and buzz to continue his string of primary and caucus victories all the way to the nomination, it ain't over 'til the [Clinton] lady sings. Here are several reasons why I believe the media, the pundits, and even the Obama campaign itself, are premature in their belief that the Democratic Nomination is his:
- Clinton may just win Wisconsin today: Demographically, Wisconsin should be a great fit for Clinton and offer her a good chance for victory. Oddly, however, the Clinton Campaign seemed to essentially write off Wisconsin in the immediate aftermath of her losses in the Potomac Primary last week. Nothing better illustrated this than the fact that as the results began trickling in last Tuesday night, Obama was in Wisconsin -- site of the next primary, but Hillary was in Texas -- where the primary isn't until March 4th. The Clinton Campaign even released a memo by Chief Strategist Mark Penn in which he outlined the campaign's plan to emphasize Texas and Ohio on March 4th and Pennsylvania on April 22nd as the contests in which Hillary would make her stand, thereby essentially conceding any chance of victory in Wisconsin -- "Change begins on March 4th," Penn wrote. Late last week, however, after some polls indicated that the race between Clinton and Obama was actually quite close in Wisconsin, the Clinton Campaign changed its tune, and began to make a push, albeit a cautious and expectation-lowering push, in the Badger State. This leads me to believe that the Clinton Campaign's internal polling also showed the race to be within reach, and so they opted to try to upset Obama there or at least finish in a very close second place. So keep an eye on Wisconsin tonight, as a Clinton victory would be a significant shift in the campaign dynamics, and even a respectable second place could be used by the Clinton Campaign to show that she remains strong.
- Hillary and Bill Clinton will not go down without a fight (Part 1): As mentioned in my last post, the Clintons will absolutely fight for this nomination, and they are not averse to fighting dirty if necessary. Since last Tuesday, Clinton sharpened her attack on Obama, declaring that she is in "the solutions business", while Obama is in "the promises business". While acknowledging that Obama gives a great speech, "words are cheap" Clinton said, and it is she who can actually deliver results -- not just talk about or promise desired results. Obama deftly countered the charge in the days that followed, but he then faced an attack on his response to the attack, and it was here where we potentially saw very preliminary indications of the Clinton Campaign taking the low road, when yesterday they accused Obama of plagiarism. Specifically, the Clintons charged that Senator Obama had copied Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick in remarks he gave on Saturday in Wisconsin, remarks in which he sought to respond to Clinton's "words are cheap" comments. Said Obama Saturday:
"Don't tell me words don't matter. 'I have a dream' -- just words? 'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal' -- just words? 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself' -- just words? Just speeches?"
In fact, his remarks are very similar (in fact, nearly identical) to those given by Governor Patrick last October when he said the following:"'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal' -- just words? Just words? 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself' -- just words? 'Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.' Just words? 'I have a dream' -- just words?"
Clearly, the remarks are too similar for it to be a mere coincidence, but as it turns out, the remarks were ad-libbed and not in the prepared text of the speech, and perhaps more importantly, Deval Patrick and Barack Obama are very good friends who support each other politically. The Obama Campaign, in fact, responded with a statement from Governor Patrick himself that read:"Senator Obama and I are longtime friends and allies. We often share ideas about politics, policy and language. The argument in question, on the value of words in the public square, is one about which he and I have spoken frequently before. Given the recent attacks from Senator Clinton, I applaud him for responding in just the way he did."
Obama's campaign further charged that Hillary Clinton was in no position to criticize Obama on this issue, citing instances where she herself had made remarks that Obama had heavily used previously, such as "Yes We Can" and "Fired Up and Ready to Go". In the end, this ploy was a losing one for the Clinton Campaign in my opinion, as it was essentially an invalid claim, and a hypocritical and fairly petty one at that. This type of tactic, however, is one that we will likely see replicated and intensified in the event Obama wins Wisconsin today, and one should never underestimate the ability of the Clintons to engage in political combat -- be it hand-to-hand, or knife-to-back. - Hillary and Bill Clinton will not go down without a fight (Part 2): In addition to launching attacks on Obama, the Clintons are also exhibiting what appears to be a belief that the rules can be changed in order to best serve their political interests. If you have followed the campaign, you've almost certainly heard about the controversy surrounding the Michigan and Florida Delegates. This is a fairly complex issue, and so I will try to simplify it as best I can. Last year, Michigan and Florida both opted to move their primaries ahead in the electoral calendar this year. In doing so, they were defying the wishes of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), who had indicated that if they did so, their respective delegations would not be seated at the Democratic National Convention in September, thereby taking away the ability of the voters of the two states to influence who the Democratic Nominee would be. In observance of the DNC's ruling and penalty, all of the Democratic candidates agreed months ago not to campaign in Michigan or Florida. Despite all of this, both Michigan and Florida proceeded to hold their primaries (on January 15th and January 29th, respectively), even though they were effectively meaningless "beauty contests", and even though in Michigan, Hillary Clinton was the only Democratic candidate whose name appeared on the ballot. The Obama and Edwards Campaigns were not pleased about that, and they were further angered when Hillary flew to Florida on the night of the Florida Primary to declare "victory", a hollow claim for a contest in which no one had campaigned, and an action viewed as violating the spirit of the DNC's decision and the candidates' agreement. Now, with Clinton and Obama locked in a tight race, the issue of what will happen to the Michigan and Florida Delegates -- 167 and 172 delegates, respectively -- could be very important in determining who the nominee will be. The DNC never dreamed that the nomination would be this tightly contested and therefore is unsure of how to solve this problem -- potentially a big one. The Clinton Campaign, of course, is now happy to offer their suggested solution: award the delegates as is. In other words, in Michigan, based on the number of votes Hillary received, she would be awarded 99 delegates, while "Uncommitted" -- the only other choice on the ballot for Michigan Democrats -- would receive 68 delegates. (Those 68 would presumably go to Obama, but one can imagine how someone who was an Edwards or Kucinich or Richardson supporter and who therefore voted "Uncommitted" might feel about having their vote arbitrarily assigned to Obama). In Florida, Hillary would take 105 delegates and Obama would claim 67. The net result of the two contests would be a pickup of 69 delegates for Hillary -- a significant increase in a delegate count in which she is now trailing by approximately 140 delegates. Hillary cloaks her belief that the votes in the two states should be counted in the name of avoiding the disenfranchisement of the Michigan and Florida voters. The Obama Campaign understandably objects to the Clinton Campaign's newfound concern for the voters of Michigan and Florida, seeing it as the blatant and politically-motivated ploy that it is. All of the candidates and campaigns agreed to the rules about Michigan and Florida, and the Clinton Campaign's position now amounts to an attempt to change the rules late in a game in which they find themselves losing. (The Clintons' desperate attempts at changing the rules in the midst of the game will not likely stop here if they continue to trail Obama. In fact, as of this morning, that effort has broadened with the report that the Clinton Campaign will not hesitate to actively seek the support of Pledged Delegates -- in other words, delegates whose support Obama has already won in the previous primaries and caucuses -- in order to win the nomination. I believe this is unheard of in the history of the Democratic Party's nominating process, but leave it to the Clintons to be the first.
- The "Frontrunner" title is a new dynamic for Obama, and it can be a double-edged sword: While every candidate seeks to be "the frontrunner", attaining that title and position is not without peril because, with the frontrunner title comes frontrunner scrutiny -- from the media as well as from the opposing candidates. In presidential politics, when a candidate takes the lead, that candidate will understandably receive more attention to everything he or she does and says. This can be a very good thing for a skilled and disciplined candidate, allowing the candidate more airtime to communicate his or her message. On the other hand, it raises the stakes, making any gaffe or mistake by that candidate that much more widely seen and heard, and thus that much more consequential. This is a new position for Obama, and while he has given every indication that he is a uniquely skilled and disciplined candidate, we should never underestimate the power of the spotlight to throw even the most polished politician off his or her game. Another potentially negative byproduct of Obama's taking the lead is that the media begin to train their prying eyes on him, his background, his associates and essentially anyone with whom or anything with which he has ever done. The best way to illustrate this is by giving you just a sampling of the headlines and stories about Obama and his campaign (and even his wife) that have appeared since he "officially" became the frontrunner just one week ago:
- Obama is Not Inevitable
- Is Obama Good for Business?
- Obama's Iraq Record: A 'Fairy Tale'?
- Will People Tire of Obamamania?
- Obama Casts His Spell
- And Now the Press Will Come After Obama
- Is Obama Too Hip For His Own Good?
- Obama's Waffle on Public Funding
- Beyond Change: The Obama Mystery
- Obama Sells Same Old Stuff
- Obama's Fine Words & the Economic Reality
- The Risk and Reward of Obama
- The Magic Fades but Obama Persists
- Michele Obama: She Said What?
- Cult of Obama Will Turn Off Independents
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
The Potomac Primary Portends Plenty...
Well, it's another big day for Campaign 2008 -- particularly for the Democrats.
Today is the so-called "Potomac Primary", in which Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia will all hold their primary elections. Looking at the latest polls, Barack Obama has a significant lead. The Clinton Campaign seems to agree, downplaying expectations for Hillary Clinton's performance in today's contests, and already looking ahead to Texas and Ohio, holding their primaries on March 4th.
Barack Obama has attained significant momentum, both on the back of his strong showing on Super Duper Tuesday on February 5th, and after sweeping all four contests this past weekend, beating Hillary Clinton in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska and Maine. In fact, according to some news organizations' count of Democratic Delegates, he may have opened up a slight lead over Clinton in the delegate count, and if not, he is right on her tail. Remarkably, the Junior Senator from Illinois has already (or is on the verge of) robbing Hillary of "frontrunner" status. Victories today of the magnitude predicted by the polls would almost surely cement Obama as the favorite for the Democratic Nomination -- something that was almost unfathomable even as recently as two months ago.
If Hillary is able to somehow pull out a victory in Virginia or Maryland today -- and Virginia probably represents her best shot at doing so, albeit a distant one -- she would be positioned to reclaim some of her lost momentum. At this point, however, that looks unlikely, and we should prepare ourselves for a spate of news stories in the coming days about Obama's ascendance and Hillary's imminent demise. When you see or read these stories, however, keep in mind that the Clintons will not go down without a fight, and they are not afraid to punch below the belt. So while the media may declare the Democratic race as being all-but-over if Obama wins big tonight, the reality is that Hillary & Co. should not yet be counted out -- not by a long shot.
On the Republican side, tonight's results are both less suspenseful and less important. John McCain has essentially secured the GOP Nomination, though someone needs to get that message to Mike Huckabee, who continues on with his campaign, seemingly unaware of the fact that he has no chance of capturing the nomination. When confronted with the staggering mathematical odds against his ability to overtake McCain, Huckabee responded with one of his now typical corny lines:
Tonight it appears that McCain will win all three contests, and at that point, I hope that Huckabee will see the light, do the right thing, and remove himself from the race. The process of reconciling conservative Republicans with McCain is not going to be an easy one, and it's going to take some time. The sooner that wing of the GOP and their nominee-to-be can bury the hatchet, the better the chances for McCain and all other Republicans in November. Huckabee is the only thing preventing this from starting now, and in a time where it appears the Democrats may continue to battle for weeks and even months to come, the opportunity for the GOP to settle on their nominee now and turn their attention to November is an important advantage. It's an advantage that cannot be tapped, however, until Huckabee quits, and every day he remains in the race is almost certainly diminishing his chances of being a part of a McCain Administration.
With all of this said, however, if we've learned anything during this political season thus far it is that the polls are often wrong. That's why, as always, we await the actual voters' decisions, and tonight will be the latest installment in what has already been an entertaining and exciting campaign.
Today is the so-called "Potomac Primary", in which Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia will all hold their primary elections. Looking at the latest polls, Barack Obama has a significant lead. The Clinton Campaign seems to agree, downplaying expectations for Hillary Clinton's performance in today's contests, and already looking ahead to Texas and Ohio, holding their primaries on March 4th.
Barack Obama has attained significant momentum, both on the back of his strong showing on Super Duper Tuesday on February 5th, and after sweeping all four contests this past weekend, beating Hillary Clinton in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska and Maine. In fact, according to some news organizations' count of Democratic Delegates, he may have opened up a slight lead over Clinton in the delegate count, and if not, he is right on her tail. Remarkably, the Junior Senator from Illinois has already (or is on the verge of) robbing Hillary of "frontrunner" status. Victories today of the magnitude predicted by the polls would almost surely cement Obama as the favorite for the Democratic Nomination -- something that was almost unfathomable even as recently as two months ago.
If Hillary is able to somehow pull out a victory in Virginia or Maryland today -- and Virginia probably represents her best shot at doing so, albeit a distant one -- she would be positioned to reclaim some of her lost momentum. At this point, however, that looks unlikely, and we should prepare ourselves for a spate of news stories in the coming days about Obama's ascendance and Hillary's imminent demise. When you see or read these stories, however, keep in mind that the Clintons will not go down without a fight, and they are not afraid to punch below the belt. So while the media may declare the Democratic race as being all-but-over if Obama wins big tonight, the reality is that Hillary & Co. should not yet be counted out -- not by a long shot.
On the Republican side, tonight's results are both less suspenseful and less important. John McCain has essentially secured the GOP Nomination, though someone needs to get that message to Mike Huckabee, who continues on with his campaign, seemingly unaware of the fact that he has no chance of capturing the nomination. When confronted with the staggering mathematical odds against his ability to overtake McCain, Huckabee responded with one of his now typical corny lines:
"I know some people say that the math doesn't work out. Folks, I didn't major in math. I majored in miracles, and I still believe in those too".A miracle, however, is exactly what it would take at this point for "Huck" to surpass "Mac", and to put it bluntly, it isn't going to happen. Huckabee would be well-served to follow the honorable lead of Mitt Romney and withdraw from the race after he loses -- as it appears he will -- all of today's primaries. By doing so, he would allow the Republican Party to begin its acceptance of (and in the case of "true" conservatives, their reconciliation with) McCain as the GOP Nominee. I frankly believe that Huckabee's insistence on continuing his futile effort is entirely ego-driven, born of a hope to be tapped as McCain's running mate, or at the very least, to be able to command healthy fees for future book deals, television appearances and speeches.
Tonight it appears that McCain will win all three contests, and at that point, I hope that Huckabee will see the light, do the right thing, and remove himself from the race. The process of reconciling conservative Republicans with McCain is not going to be an easy one, and it's going to take some time. The sooner that wing of the GOP and their nominee-to-be can bury the hatchet, the better the chances for McCain and all other Republicans in November. Huckabee is the only thing preventing this from starting now, and in a time where it appears the Democrats may continue to battle for weeks and even months to come, the opportunity for the GOP to settle on their nominee now and turn their attention to November is an important advantage. It's an advantage that cannot be tapped, however, until Huckabee quits, and every day he remains in the race is almost certainly diminishing his chances of being a part of a McCain Administration.
With all of this said, however, if we've learned anything during this political season thus far it is that the polls are often wrong. That's why, as always, we await the actual voters' decisions, and tonight will be the latest installment in what has already been an entertaining and exciting campaign.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Another One Bites the Dust...
Well, the Republican Party has just lost the person I believed to be their best candidate for President of the United States: Mitt Romney. Just in the last fifteen minutes or so, the Romney Campaign has confirmed that Governor Romney will suspend his campaign for the Republican Nomination. ("Suspending" the campaign is merely the traditional parlance for "ending" the campaign).
Clearly political calculations were a part of this decision -- he simply was not winning enough and was unable to stunt McCain's momentum. The decision to leave the race now, however, is also a reflection of the class and character of the man -- two of the reasons why I felt he was the strongest GOP candidate. He could have continued on -- McCain has not officially won the nomination and Romney has the financial wherewithal to do so -- but he is doing what is best for the Republican Party. By leaving now, he will allow the GOP to (attempt to) come together behind John McCain, the now "officially" presumptive nominee. This is particularly important for Republicans given the battle for the Democratic Nomination that continues between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama -- a battle that shows no sign of ending anytime soon. So while the Democrats continue what amounts to infighting, the Republicans can unite behind their candidate and begin to focus on the General Election in November.
This was an honorable end to an honorable campaign. Republicans should hope that the other two remaining candidates -- Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul -- quickly follow suit.
Update:
Here is an excerpt from Romney's speech today at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) during which he announced the suspension of his campaign:
Clearly political calculations were a part of this decision -- he simply was not winning enough and was unable to stunt McCain's momentum. The decision to leave the race now, however, is also a reflection of the class and character of the man -- two of the reasons why I felt he was the strongest GOP candidate. He could have continued on -- McCain has not officially won the nomination and Romney has the financial wherewithal to do so -- but he is doing what is best for the Republican Party. By leaving now, he will allow the GOP to (attempt to) come together behind John McCain, the now "officially" presumptive nominee. This is particularly important for Republicans given the battle for the Democratic Nomination that continues between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama -- a battle that shows no sign of ending anytime soon. So while the Democrats continue what amounts to infighting, the Republicans can unite behind their candidate and begin to focus on the General Election in November.
This was an honorable end to an honorable campaign. Republicans should hope that the other two remaining candidates -- Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul -- quickly follow suit.
Update:
Here is an excerpt from Romney's speech today at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) during which he announced the suspension of his campaign:
I disagree with Senator McCain on a number of issues, as you know. But I agree with him on doing whatever it takes to be successful in Iraq, on finding and executing Osama bin Laden, and on eliminating Al Qaeda and terror. If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win. And in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign, be a part of aiding a surrender to terror.
This is not an easy decision for me. I hate to lose. My family, my friends and our supporters... many of you right here in this room... have given a great deal to get me where I have a shot at becoming President. If this were only about me, I would go on. But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country.
Bragging Writes Was "Out of the Office"...
Greetings, and apologies for the lack of recent posts. I've been away for the last week and have just returned this evening. After a day or two of digging out at work, I'll be back with new blog entries about Super Tuesday and the state of the 2008 Election. Stay tuned!
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