It's Groundhog Day for the Democrats

On Groundhog Day every February 2nd in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, the world's most famous groundhog, "Punxsutawney Phil" emerges from his burrow amid great fanfare. If Phil sees his shadow, the legend holds that we can expect six more weeks of winter. If he does not see his shadow, we can look forward to an early spring.

Today, Punxsutawney -- and all of Pennsylvania -- will take center stage again to offer another prognostication of what lies ahead. The Pennsylvania Primary is today, and the political stakes are enormous for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as they continue to battle for the Democratic Nomination. Today we wait to find out if we can expect six more weeks of what is quickly becoming a political winter for the Democratic Party, or if spring will finally arrive for Obama and his supporters. Pennsylvania, we again leave our fate in your hands!

In the latest RealClearPolitics "RCP Average" of the Pennsylvania polls, Clinton holds a 6.1 point lead over Obama, reflecting a much closer race than even a few weeks ago when she led by double digits. So let's look at four potential outcomes of this political Groundhog Day, and what each outcome would likely mean for the Democrats...

1) Barack Obama beats Hillary Clinton: In this scenario, Spring will arrive in all its glory for the Obama Campaign and their supporters. If he is victorious in Pennsylvania -- regardless of the margin -- the race for the Democratic Nomination will be over. Hillary will face insurmountable pressure to withdraw from the race, and the remaining undeclared superdelegates will begin flocking to Obama. Even Clinton -- as tough (stubborn?) as she is -- would realize that it would be time to go.

2) Hillary Clinton beats Barack Obama by 5 points or less: This scenario would be characterized as a narrow victory for Clinton and, while it would be a victory, I do not believe it would be by a margin large enough to allow her campaign to continue. I suspect that in an outcome like this, Hillary would continue to argue that she should continue her campaign, and perhaps her absolute most die-hard supporters would back her up on that. But many Democrats -- and even many current (if less die-hard) Clinton supporters and superdelegates -- would begin a noisy call for her to quit, and I think it would be just loud enough to force the issue.

3) Clinton beats Obama by 6 - 10 points: Based on the most recent polls, this is the most likely outcome, and the political ramifications of this outcome are the hardest to predict. After Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas six weeks ago, the conventional wisdom was that she probably needed to go on to win in Pennsylvania by at least 10 points. As Obama has flooded the airwaves with ads and as the voters of Pennsylvania have begun to pay more attention, the race has become closer, and as it stands now, I think that Clinton and her campaign have possibly managed to (somehow) successfully lower expectations to the point that a victory of this magnitude would allow her to continue -- at least through the Indiana and North Carolina Primaries in two weeks. There will still be some calls for Clinton to bow out, but I think this scenario would lead to her surviving at least two more weeks.

4) Clinton beats Obama by 10+ points: If Hillary wins by 10 or more points, the Democratic nomination contest is likely headed for six more weeks of what has already been a long winter for the party. (Quite frankly, this would really more like hell for the party, so if it's any consolation to the Democrats, the weather should actually be quite balmy)! Should she manage to beat him this soundly today, Hillary and her campaign will absolutely continue through Indiana and North Carolina in two weeks, and probably for several weeks beyond that including West Virginia on May 13th, Oregon and Kentucky on May 20th, and Puerto Rico on June 1st. Additionally, this may initiate a period of real concern and doubt about Obama's strength as a candidate -- to the point that it could do the improbable and resuscitate the Clinton Campaign. On the other hand, this is the best-case scenario not only for Hillary and her supporters, but for John McCain and his too. There is absolutely no doubt that the continuing squabble between Clinton and Obama has helped McCain, and were that to continue (most likely with increased acrimony and negativity), he would only continue to reap the rewards.

The protracted fight we are now witnessing between Senators Clinton and Obama for the Democratic Nomination is rather extraordinary, really. At this point, I can see no truly legitimate or plausible way that Hillary will be able to wrest the nomination from Obama's grasp. His advantages in terms of his delegate lead, his popular vote lead, his financial lead and even his lead in sheer momentum are nearly impossible for her to overcome. Even if Hillary were to somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, the resulting damage to the Democratic Party and the fracturing within it would be catastrophic. Additionally, I can think of no candidate other than Hillary who would not have already faced overwhelming pressure to relent by now. It's a testament to her remarkable ambition, that (in)famous Clintonian "never say die" spirit, and the fact that she is a unique candidate as the first plausible female candidate, and a former First Lady at that. This has been a truly historic and exciting election year so far, and if the nomination contests have been indicative of what we can expect from the general election, it will be one fascinating summer and fall for political junkies everywhere!

Could John Edwards Be the King (or Queen) Maker?

The Democrats, plainly, have a bit of a mess on their hands. By any reasonable measure, Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton. He's won more primaries and caucuses (29 - 15), he's won more votes (13,280,770 - 12,577,044), and he's won more pledged delegates (1403 - 1239).

So it's clear, right? Obama's obviously the frontrunner, and he has the nomination all but locked up, doesn't he? Well, no, not quite. So why, with such a numeric edge, is he unable to put Hillary Clinton away? There are a handful of reasons:

1) The Democratic Party's Nominating Process, Part A:
In the Democratic Party, the nomination is won differently than in the Republican Party. Pledged delegates are awarded proportionally, reflecting the popular vote tally. So, for example, while Obama did win the Alabama Primary on February 5th by a 55.8% to 41.7% popular vote margin, because of the proportional allocation of delegates, he only received 27 of the state's 52 delegates, while Hillary, despite losing rather convincingly, took 25 delegates. Such a system makes it very difficult for either candidate to put significant distance between him/herself and his/her opponent. (In the GOP, by contrast, regardless of how narrow or wide the victory, all delegates go to the winner). So even though Obama has won nearly twice as many state contests as Hillary, the manner in which delegates are awarded has prevented him from amassing the 2025 delegates needed to secure the party's nomination.

2) The Democratic Party's Nominating Process, Part B:
The other fundamental difference for the Democrats is the existence of the so-called superdelegates. As you've probably heard by now, superdelegates are a group of individuals (primarily various current and former elected officials) who are free to support any candidate they wish for the Democratic Nomination. There is nothing in the rules of the party specifying that a superdelegate must choose according to the popular vote in general, or in the case of current officeholders, the popular vote in their city, district, state, etc. There are nearly 800 superdelegates, and over 3200 pledged delegates (those delegates who are bound by popular vote to support one candidate over another). As 20% of the approximately 4000 delegates in total, the superdelegates can, and in this extremely close election will, play a very important role in selecting their party's nominee. In fact, at this point, neither Obama nor Clinton can secure the 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination solely through the pledged delegates that remain in the states who have yet to hold their primary or caucus. Currently Hillary actually has more superdelegates who have pledged to support her than does Obama, with 248 to his 212. There are, however, 344 more superdelegates who have yet to declare their support for either candidate, and it is these 344 individuals who will likely end up deciding the party's nominee.

3) The States Obama Has Not Won:
Among the states in which Hillary has bested Obama are several of the most populous states in the country (California, New York and Texas), several of the most important "swing states" for the General Election in November (Ohio particularly, but also Arizona, Arkansas, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Tennessee), and four states that are considered "must-wins" for a Democratic victory in November (California, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York). This, in fact, has been one of the arguments the Clinton Campaign has most frequently and vociferously made over the last month. If, they argue, Obama cannot win these crucial states now, there is a very good chance that he will not carry them in November which, if true, would mean a sure victory for John McCain. This is not as valid or clear-cut as the Clintons would like us to believe, however it's been repeated so often that it has become a source of concern for the Democratic Party, and another reason that Obama has been unable to put Hillary away.

4) Michigan and Florida:
Because both Michigan and Florida moved their primaries ahead on the electoral calendar in clear violation of the rules specified by the Democratic National Committee, the DNC decided last fall -- with the support of all the candidates and their campaigns -- that those states' delegates would not be seated (not counted, in other words) at the Democratic National Convention in August. As a result, the candidates and campaigns made a mutual pact not to campaign in those states since they would effectively be non-binding popularity/beauty contests with no delegates at stake. In Michigan, several candidates including Obama went so far as to have their names removed from the Michigan Democratic Primary ballot in deference to the DNC. Hillary did not. Not surprisingly, Clinton "won" the state, though with Obama's name not even on the ballot, her claims of victory were dubious at best. In Florida, Senator Clinton also "won", and much to the consternation of the other Democratic candidates, flew to the state on the night of the primary to again declare "victory" in a contest that was not considered legitimate. This is potentially the biggest mess of the 2008 Election for the Democrats, particularly given the importance of both states to a Democratic win in November, as well as the significant number of delegates at stake: 128 in Michigan and 185 in Florida -- 8th and 4th most in the country, respectively. (In fact, the numbers I listed at the beginning of this post for state contests, votes and delegates won did not include Michigan or Florida. If they are included with their original -- if not flawed -- results, the mathematical picture becomes far brighter for Hillary). Predictably then, once the Clintons found themselves in political peril after Obama's momentum (and numbers) grew, they argued that the delegates from both states should, in fact, be seated and counted. Obama and others have argued that this tactic is nothing more than an attempt by the Clintons to change the rules in the middle of the game -- a game in which they find themselves trailing. This argument is particularly absurd in Michigan given that Obama was not on the ballot, but not much more valid in Florida given that Obama did not even campaign or advertise there. With that said, because of how very close this race is, both the Clinton and Obama Campaigns have now agreed that some solution must be found in order for these two delegate-rich states to have their say in the party's nomination process. As I write, the precise solutions for Michigan and Florida have not yet been decided upon, and there are several ideas being considered. It seems almost certain, however, that in some form or fashion, both states will have a "re-vote" -- perhaps a vote-by-mail arrangement, or maybe even entirely new primaries. This bears watching closely, because the eventual course that the DNC and the two states take could have a significant impact on the ultimate outcome. The current state of limbo in which these states exist, however, is yet another obstacle to Obama's ability to clinch the nomination.

5) Hillary Clinton:
No, not Hillary's success as a candidate or her out-campaigning of Obama since, quite frankly, he's proven himself to be a better candidate and campaigner than she. What I am referring to, rather, is Hillary Clinton's uncommonly intense ambition, arguable stubbornness, and her vintage Clintonian trait of being willing to do anything and everything to win. Some candidates would acknowledge that winning the nomination in a traditional and uncontroversial fashion is nearly impossible at this point, and accordingly might withdraw from the race. But not Hillary. Some candidates would be unwilling to win in the manner in which she would now have to win -- namely by having the majority of the superdelegates select her over Obama such that she attains the 2025 delegates needed to win, debatably subverting the choice of the majority of voters. But not Hillary. Some candidates would refuse to resort to the "kitchen sink" strategy of throwing every negative the campaign could find at their opponent prior to the Texas and Ohio Primaries -- attacking a fellow Democrat and doing so at the risk of damaging that opponent's (and therefore the party's) potential electability in November. But not Hillary. No, in Hillary, Obama faces an opponent who will "not go gently into that good night". To be fair, this is a quality of hers that is likely admired by just as many who disdain it. Regardless of what one thinks of this aspect of Hillary's candidacy and personality, though, it's a very real hurdle for Obama to clear before he can be assured of the nomination.

So what happens now? Well, the next stop is Pennsylvania, which holds its primary on April 22nd. The media have set expectations such that the state is a likely win for Clinton. It is also generally acknowledged that it is a must-win for Clinton, and all signs do currently point to her beating Obama there, with the latest polls giving her a lead of between 13 and 19 points. The Obama Campaign almost seems resigned to this fate, recently lowering expectations for an upset win for him in the Keystone State. Should Obama upset Clinton in Pennsylvania, however, the race would be effectively over, and he would win enough support from a combination of undecided superdelegates and superdelegates switching from Clinton that he would secure the nomination . In the more likely event however that she does win in Pennsylvania, she and her campaign will argue that she has again won another large, populous state, and another state that is essential for victory in November. Pennsylvania offers a total of 158 delegates (only California, New York, Texas and Florida have more), and should she win by a margin consistent with the current polling data, she would stand to gain a significant number of delegates, more momentum, and the campaign would continue.

Next up would be the North Carolina and Indiana Primaries on May 6th. North Carolina, with 115 delegates, is something of a sleeper in my opinion, and a state whose importance I believe the media are currently overlooking. Conventional wisdom currently argues for North Carolina being favorable territory for Obama, an assertion backed up by recent polls that show him leading Clinton by 4 to 8 points. But it is here that I believe John Edwards -- somewhat forgotten by the press and potentially by the voters -- could be a difference-maker -- and potentially a king maker or a queen maker.

The expectations have already been established: Clinton should win Pennsylvania, and Obama should win North Carolina. As the race grinds on and remains tight, the only way I can see Hillary regaining sufficient momentum to realistically recapture frontrunner status is if she is able to defy expectations in such a way as to trigger the superdelegates to begin lining up behind her en masse. The best chance for such a moment would be for her to "upset" Obama in North Carolina, and this is the way I could see that scenario potentially playing out...

Should Hillary win Pennsylvania, she'll have some wind in her sails. Obama will still lead her in every measurable category, but the media, nevertheless, will still present her victory as momentous. If we assume she receives even a slight "bump" from a win in Pennsylvania, it's conceivable that Hillary and Obama would enter North Carolina in a dead heat, he in need of a win to reestablish his momentum, and she in need of a win to potentially regain the overall edge. In such a close contest, there would not be much needed to tip the scales in either candidate's favor. Enter John Edwards. A resident of North Carolina and one of the state's two senators from 1998 - 2004, Edwards could likely provide just enough of a boost for Clinton or Obama to put one of them over the top there.

While Edwards was not successful in his own run for the White House in 2004 or 2008, and while he was unable to put North Carolina into his party's winning column as the Vice Presidential candidate in 2004, there likely remains enough affection for him in the state from the people who count -- the faithful Democratic voters who will go to the polls -- to allow him to potentially play king maker, were he to endorse Obama, or queen maker should he side with Hillary. Getting the nod from Edwards could also have national implications for whichever candidate receives it. Even though Edwards did consistently place third behind Obama and Clinton when he was in the race, his support could not be called insignificant, and again, when things are this close, not much is required to alter the dynamics of the race substantially. Both Obama and Clinton seemed aware of this in the wake of Edwards' withdrawal from the race, as both went out of their way to praise him and his candidacy, and to pledge to assume the role of championing the poor, Edwards' signature issue and cause. Indeed, both candidates even took valuable time away from campaigning to surreptitiously fly to Edwards' Chapel Hill, NC home, presumably in search of his endorsement, Clinton on February 7th, followed by Obama on February 17th. Despite the two meetings, no endorsement has followed.

I suspect an Edwards endorsement of Obama to be more likely, but I would argue that an Edwards endorsement of Clinton would be more significant. The reason that Edwards' support would be more important for Hillary is because the contest immediately after North Carolina and Indiana is the West Virginia Primary on May 13th, and West Virginia is a state whose demographics would seem very favorable to Clinton. A Clinton win in Pennsylvania, followed by a Clinton "upset" victory in North Carolina (presumably with help from Edwards), capped off with a third consecutive win by Clinton in West Virginia, just might provide her the momentum (and the media the narrative) to convince the superdelegates to decide that she is the candidate now on a roll, and that she is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating John McCain in November. She knows this, Edwards knows this, and I would watch carefully to see what Edwards does as the North Carolina Primary draws closer, and likely becomes more and more important in determining whether Obama or Clinton emerges as the Democratic Nominee.

The Gloves Are Off

First a quick recap of the weekend's events...

In Nevada, Mitt Romney won the Republican Caucus in decisive fashion, taking 51% of the vote to Ron Paul's 14%, John McCain's 13%, Mike Huckabee's 8%, Fred Thompson's 8%, and Rudy Giuliani's 4%. Romney benefited from being the only GOP candidate to devote significant time (and resources) to the state, and also was helped by a relatively large number of Mormon voters who overwhelmingly supported him. (Romney is also a member of the LDS Church).

Also on Saturday, John McCain won the South Carolina Republican Primary. McCain received 33% of the vote to Mike Huckabee's 30%, Fred Thompson's 16%, and Mitt Romney's 15%. This was an important win for McCain as he was able to overcome both Mike Huckabee, who had hoped that his evangelical background and southern roots would give him a win, and also to a lesser extent Fred Thompson, who bet it all on a strong finish in South Carolina. (Thompson dropped out of the race today, as I had predicted he would if he finished a distant third to McCain and Huckabee). Romney finished fourth, but had essentially abandoned his efforts there last week to focus on Nevada, thereby shrewdly lowering expectations for his South Carolina showing.

Now it's on to Florida for the Republican candidates, where the state will hold its primary on January 29th. McCain enters the Sunshine State in the strongest position after his wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and his growing status as the "establishment" candidate and/or the "inevitable" nominee. Romney's Nevada victory (and to some extent, his Michigan victory too) were largely ignored by the media in favor of the more contested South Carolina vote. As a result, it will be difficult for Romney to leverage his two victories for momentum in Florida. Huckabee's candidacy is weakened considerably. Should he have another weak showing in Florida next week, his campaign will be in dire straits. He seems to be aware of this, announcing today that he will have to take steps to save money and would even consider abandoning Florida before next week's primary if the outlook is bleak. In my opinion, the outlook is already bleak for "Huck", and I suspect he will fade out of view in the near future. (I do not, however, think he will drop out before Super Tuesday, where he undoubtedly thinks he can do well in states such as Alabama, Georgia, and his home state of Arkansas. It's my belief that he views those states as a chance to show some electoral strength for what appers to me to be his obvious desire to be vice president. After all, the longer he remains in the race, the more he hurts Mitt Romney, and therefore helps John McCain, and I think the former Arkansas Governor already has visions of McCain-Huckabee 2008 bumper stickers. I wouldn't be so sure, Governor, but that's a matter for another post). A weakened or absent Huckabee in Florida should help Romney there. Last but not least, we can't forget Rudy. Yes, Rudy Giuliani is also in Florida, and in fact has been in Florida for the last few weeks. He absolutely needs to win next week in order for his campaign to continue. (It is possible that a very close second-place would allow him to continue on to Super Tuesday, but in all likelihood, Florida is "must win" for Rudy). As of now, McCain holds a slight lead in Florida, but the race is close, and it's also crucial in determining who the GOP Nominee will be. I'll have more on Florida as it approaches next week.

In the Nevada Democratic Caucus, Hillary Clinton emerged with an important win, capturing 51% of the vote. Barack Obama finished second with 45%, and John Edwards a very distant third with 4%. This was a key victory for Hillary, as an Obama win would have again given him a great deal of momentum, and also renewed concerns about the strength of Clinton's candidacy. (In full disclosure, I predicted an Obama upset in my last post, and that is why I am not paid to prognosticate)!

The South Carolina Democratic Primary is this Saturday, and with polls showing Obama with a large lead, Hillary is largely spending her time elsewhere this week, and while she does have her husband campaigning there on her behalf, she still is effectively conceding the Palmetto State to Obama. The Illinois Senator will almost certainly go on to win South Carolina Saturday, essentially preventing either Clinton or Obama from staking a solid claim to the "front-runner" label, and setting up a Super Tuesday showdown between the two.

With the weekend recap out of the way, let's move on to "the main event"...

If you caught last week's Nevada Democratic Debate, you'll recall that both Clinton and Obama seemed to try very hard to avoid conflict and negativity. With Clinton's win in Nevada, perhaps Obama thinks the nomination is slipping away. Or maybe with the realization that Obama will win South Carolina, Hillary is frustrated that she can't seem to clinch what she and her campaign have long viewed as her "inevitable" Democratic Nomination. Either way, in a debate last night in South Carolina, both candidates seemed irritable, and to the delight of Republicans and political junkies alike, the gloves came off. For your enjoyment, here is a "highlight reel" of some of the more contentious exchanges from last night -- capped off with John Edwards asking one of the more ironic and unintentionally self-parodying questions of Campaign 2008 thus far:

Wow! Just imagine if Hillary had lost Nevada. Last night could have gotten really ugly!

Where Things Stand & What to Watch Going Forward...

Sorry for the radio silence for the last week or so, but from time to time, I have to deal with my "real" job! If you've seen the stock market lately, I am sure you can imagine that things have been just a tad busy around here. Speaking of busy, the presidential candidates have also been very active, and there will be no rest for the weary anytime soon. So where do things stand now?

On the Democratic side, we are down to three candidates: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. (Bill Richardson withdrew from the race last week after poor showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire). To say that Hillary's win in New Hampshire was unexpected would be a massive understatement. Not only did every poll taken in New Hampshire indicate that Obama would win there (and decisively), every political operative on the ground and on the television predicted the same. Perhaps more interesting is that even the Clinton Campaign expected a loss, and it wasn't until they saw exit polls late in the day last Tuesday that they thought she might have a chance to just keep it close. She did more than that, obviously, taking 39% of the vote to Obama's 36% and Edwards' 17%. The media were baffled, having swooned over Obama in the days between Iowa and New Hampshire, and in their haste to explain their erroneous predictions, many theories for her "comeback" were put forth. Here are two of the more (in my opinion) plausible theories:

1) Hillary Humanization: Hillary's "emotional" moment highlighted here last week -- whether genuine or calculated -- seems to have been effective in making her seem more like "you and me", and potentially more likeable as well. She also had a moment in a debate prior to the Primary (not this one!) in which she was asked to address the "likeability issue" (a reference to the fact that in many polls, respondents expressed that they "liked" Obama more than Clinton). She responded deftly, jokingly saying "Well, that hurts my feelings," followed by assuming a mock puppy dog face, and then adding with a smile, "But I'll try to go on". The crowd laughed, and it was effective political theater for her. Have a look:

The "humanization" theory would also assert that through the tears and the self-deprecating humor, she became a sympathetic figure to many, but to women voters in particular. Women turned out in greater numbers than men in New Hampshire, and as it turned out, Clinton took 47% of the female vote to Obama's 34% -- a striking reversal from Iowa where, as you may recall, Obama won the women's vote by a 35% to 30% margin over Hillary.

2) The "Bradley Effect": The "Bradley Effect" (a.k.a. "The Wilder Effect") is the name given to a political phenomenon that allegedly occurs with the presence of an African-American candidate (or presumably any minority candidate) in an election, rendering pre-election polls inaccurate and producing final results far different from what the political experts predicted. (The theory is so named because of two elections in the 1980's with black candidates in which the polls and prognostications prior to the election proved to be seriously flawed: in the 1982 Los Angeles Mayoral Race between Tom Bradley, an African-American, and George Deukmejian, who was white, Bradley narrowly lost a race he had been universally expected to win; and in the 1989 Virginia Gubernatorial Election between Douglas Wilder, who was black, and Marshall Coleman, a white candidate, Wilder was shown with an average lead of nine points going into Election Day, but ended up barely winning with a margin of victory of less than 0.5%). The theory holds that when a black candidate is on the ballot, white voters feel compelled to tell pollsters or anyone who might ask that they are supporting the black candidate over the white candidate for fear of being judged as racist or closed-minded. When these same voters are in the privacy of the voting booth, however, there is no such fear of the consequences for not casting a vote for the minority candidate. As a result, many of these voters who may have told a pollster or journalist or friend one thing, in actuality end up doing another. New Hampshire, it should be noted, is an overwhelmingly white state, and this theory could help explain how Obama lost a race in which he had commanding leads in the polls. In many ways, it's possible the phenomenon was compounded by the overwhelming media attention Obama received between Iowa and New Hampshire, perhaps making the respondent to a poll even more self-conscious about not voicing an intention to support the "hot" candidate.

For the Republicans, John McCain appears to be the "front-runner" after his victory in New Hampshire last week in which he garnered 37% of the vote to Mitt Romney's 31% and Mike Huckabee's 11%. (Rudy Giuliani finished with 9%, Ron Paul with 8%, and Fred Thompson with only 1%). As predicted here, the win was huge for McCain and his chances for the GOP Nomination, and Romney's loss was a big blow to his already-bruised campaign. Huckabee's distant third-place finish was undoubtedly disappointing for him, as he and his campaign likely felt that the momentum of his Iowa win would translate to a better showing in New Hampshire. The results were essentially right in line with what the polls and experts expected and, with no shocking outcome here like that of the Democrats, there frankly isn't much postmortem analysis necessary.

That's where things stand now. So what do we watch this week? In short, the schedule is busy, and with the relatively volatile and unpredictable results of the first two major contests, the race could look entirely different by this time next week. Here's how the calendar looks:

• Today (Tuesday, January 15th): The Michigan Primary (Essentially a Republican-only Contest)
• Saturday, January 19th: The Nevada Caucuses
• Saturday, January 19th: The South Carolina Republican Primary
  

For the Democrats, the Michigan Primary is really a non-event. The reasons are complicated and not worth elaborating on here, but in short, there was a disagreement between the Democratic National Committee and the Michigan Democratic Party that resulted in every candidate other than Hillary Clinton officially withdrawing from the Michigan Primary. (If you'd like more details on this, have a look at this story which explains the situation well). The Nevada Caucuses, on the other hand, will be important, and in fact, MSNBC will broadcast a debate tonight between the Democratic candidates from Las Vegas. One story that is not receiving much attention could have a big impact on what happens in Nevada on Saturday. After the New Hampshire Primary, the largest and most politically active union in Nevada -- the Culinary Workers Union (largely comprised of Las Vegas Strip casino and hotel workers) -- endorsed Obama, a significant feather in his cap there. In what can only be described as ironic timing, the Nevada State Education Association filed a lawsuit to shut down the nine so-called "at-large" caucus locations that had been established on or near the Vegas Strip to allow shift workers to participate in the caucus at or near their place of work. Many of the people who would use these locations just happen to be members of the same Culinary Workers Union that is now supporting Obama, and are people who would otherwise be unable to leave work to vote. In another "coincidence", while the Nevada State Education Association has not officially endorsed a candidate, the NSEA's leadership is comprised largely of Clinton supporters, including the Deputy Executive Director of the NSEA, Debbie Cahill, who was a founding member of Clinton's "Nevada Women's Leadership Council". The Clinton Campaign has denied any involvement in the lawsuit, but also has refused to call for the NSEA to drop their case which, if successful, would result in essentially disenfranchising thousands of shift workers who would likely be supporting Obama. This is something to keep an eye on as Saturday's Nevada Caucus approaches.

One could argue, however, that the Nevada lawsuit isn't the biggest storyline in the Democratic contest right now, because since New Hampshire, there has been a far larger issue brewing for the Democrats: Race. The issue has not been explicitly raised by either candidate, but as Clinton and Obama each dig in for what now appears likely to be a more prolonged battle for the nomination than originally thought, the negative campaigning has begun. With the negative rhetoric comes the chance for observers to search for implicit meanings and innuendo within the statements and comments emerging from the campaigns. The trouble began last Monday with none other than Bill Clinton, who made controversial remarks while he campaigned for his wife in New Hampshire. While addressing what he alleged was Obama's inconsistent stance on the Iraq War, Former President Clinton angrily declared "This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen":
With that, the rhetorical dissection began. Obama supporters and even some Clinton supporters were offended by the former president's comments, interpreting them as derogatory about the overall Obama candidacy and, perhaps more significantly, some believed Clinton was dismissing Obama's chances of becoming the first black president as merely a "fairy tale". Hillary found controversy last week as well. While acknowledging that Barack Obama is an inspiring person, a terrific and moving speaker and a hero to many, she implied that this wasn't enough, and she did so by invoking Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. "I would point to the fact that Dr. King's dreams were realized when President Lyndon Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964," Clinton said. She continued, "...it took a president to get it done". Here again, many felt there was an implied message in Clinton's comments, and were now doubly furious that she would tear Obama down by essentially downplaying (as they saw it) the importance of Martin Luther King's role in the civil rights movement. The Clinton Campaign went into full damage-control mode, but the issue of race seemed to have officially been put into play in the campaign -- highly-charged and dangerous territory for either candidate to navigate. The battle raged on throughout last week, over the weekend, and until yesterday. Monday afternoon, the Clinton campaign issued a statement that can only be described as a white flag. The statement read:

“Over this past week, there has been a lot of discussion and back and forth - much of which I know does not reflect what is in our hearts."

“And at this moment, I believe we must seek common ground."

“Our party and our nation is bigger than this. Our party has been on the front line of every civil rights movement, women's rights movement, workers' rights movement, and other movements for justice in America."

“We differ on a lot of things. And it is critical to have the right kind of discussion on where we stand. But when it comes to civil rights and our commitment to diversity, when it comes to our heroes - President John F. Kennedy and Dr. King – Senator Obama and I are on the same side."

“And in that spirit, let's come together, because I want more than anything else to ensure that our family stays together on the front lines of the struggle to expand rights for all Americans.”

Obama responded last night, telling reporters that "Bill and Hillary Clinton have historically and consistently been on the right side of the civil rights movement," and that he did not want the campaign "to degenerate into so much tit-for-tat, back and forth that we lose sight of why all of us are doing this". In my opinion, the Clinton's only sought this "ceasefire" because they realized they were on the losing end of the battle. So while it might seem to be a truce by all outward appearances, it's a fragile and uneasy one at best. The dysfunction within the Democratic Party -- the rifts and infighting and conflicts that the Democrats and the media try so hard to hide -- was on full display over the past week. Should Obama win in Nevada on Saturday, I would expect the tone of the rhetoric between the Clinton and Obama Campaigns to deteriorate even further as the Clintons become increasingly desperate in their attempt to salvage victory.

So what of the Republicans? Well, the GOP race looks downright dull in comparison to the Democrats. Since New Hampshire, the focus has turned to two states: Michigan, which holds its Primary today; and South Carolina, which holds its Primary on Saturday. In Michigan, it's really a two-man race between McCain and Romney. McCain is riding the wave of momentum from his New Hampshire win, and he won the Michigan Primary in 2000. He began campaigning there last week with a lead in the polls. Romney, a Michigan native and son of a popular Governor of Michigan in the 1960's, George Romney, now is in "must-win" mode, and he is banking on his home state to breathe new life into his campaign. In the last several days, the polls have tightened, with some even giving Romney a slight edge going into today's voting. Polls have proven very fallible after New Hampshire though, and further complicating matters is the fact that the Michigan Primary is "open", meaning anyone can vote in the Republican Primary regardless of party affiliation. In other words, Michigan voters who have not registered with a party, registered Independents, and even Democrats can vote in the GOP Primary. This allows for Independents -- longtime fans of McCain -- to play a big role in determining his fate in the quest for the nomination. It even allows for Democrats to infuse the Republican primary with their own votes, likely cast in a way they think most benefits the Democratic Party's overall chances against the Republicans in November. (In other words, one could argue that the Democrats' General Election prospects would benefit from a Romney victory in Michigan, as his political reinvigoration would lengthen the contest for the GOP Nomination and cause the candidates to spend more money and attack each other. The aforementioned Obama-Clinton battle is a perfect example). Regardless of how he wins, should Romney indeed emerge victorious in Michigan tonight, the race for the GOP Nomination will again be significantly altered. The media have seemed awfully eager to write the former Massachusetts Governor's political obituary, and have tried to do so following his second place finish in Iowa and particularly after his loss to McCain in New Hampshire. (The press virtually ignored Romney's win in the Wyoming Caucus on the Saturday between Iowa and New Hampshire's contests). While Romney's personal fortune will allow him to continue beyond Michigan should he fail to win tonight, the media will likely cross their t's and dot their i's on the story of his political demise -- and this time they will likely succeed.

McCain is also keeping a close eye on South Carolina, and is hoping for a victory there too. Were Romney to win Michigan and have his own "Comeback Kid" moment, he could probably legitimately compete in South Carolina as well, making the task of winning there harder for both McCain, and for Mike Huckabee who feels that his Southern roots and evangelical background give him a good shot at winning. Already muddying the waters for them, however, is the surprising resurgence of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, a candidate who entered the race late to great enthusiasm, but who has never seemed to truly engage in the process and has essentially fizzled thus far. In a GOP Debate last Thursday night in South Carolina, however, Thompson seemed to "wake up" from his political slumber, putting on a terrific performance, and he was almost unanimously declared the debate's winner. As long as debates have been televised, humor and the ability to deliver a memorable one-liner often play a larger role in who "wins" the debate than who is truly the best candidate or who has the best grasp of policy. To Thompson's credit, while he's no slouch when it comes to details or grasp of policies, the power of the one-liner was on full display last Thursday. Take a look at one of Fred's best "lines" from last week's debate. In this clip, he is responding to a question about last week's incident in which American Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz were provoked by speedboats allegedly manned by members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The incident was viewed as a threat, and the American ships apparently came very close to firing on (and destroying) the speed boats and their occupants:
The debate performance has apparently given new life to a campaign long ago left for dead, and Thompson's resurgence could make winning South Carolina particularly difficult for Huckabee, as he and Thompson would likely be competing for the same group of very conservative voters.

So first and foremost, tonight is important. If McCain wins Michigan, he would probably follow that up with a win in South Carolina, and then likely be unstoppable on his way to taking the nomination. But, if Romney wins Michigan, it's a whole new ballgame. We would then have three different GOP winners in the first four primaries/caucuses, and potentially a fourth winner to come on Saturday in South Carolina if Thompson is able to pull off the upset win. (The Nevada Caucuses are, for some reason, largely being ignored by the Republican candidates, thereby lessening the significance of who ultimately wins or loses there). Next on the schedule is the Florida Primary on January 29th, where Rudy Giuliani has now bet the house on his chances there. Were Romney to win tonight, Thompson on Saturday, and Giuliani on January 29th, this would be one of the most competitive (and likely entertaining) nominating contests in GOP history. Sit back and enjoy the show!

Is the Former First Lady Feeling the Heat?

I mentioned here Friday that Hillary Clinton had to expect Barack Obama to have a post-Iowa "bump", and according to a poll released today, he's got the bump, and it's very significant. In the latest Rasmussen Poll conducted after the Iowa Caucus, Obama has surged to a 12-point lead over Clinton -- 39% to 27% among likely Democratic Primary voters. In Rasmussen's last poll before Iowa, Clinton had a 3% lead over Obama, evidence of a 15-point swing in the Illinois Senator's favor. That's quite a bump, and it's quite worrisome for Hillary and her campaign.

Indeed, it would seem that Senator Clinton's own internal polling yesterday must have reflected a similar trend, because she showed an uncharacteristic flash of anger and frustration in last night's ABC debate. In a discussion about the candidates' differing health care plans, John Edwards, after first referring to Hillary as "the forces of status quo", then went on to question what he saw as Clinton's newfound claim to be the person who can best bring about "change", and her related "attacks" on her opponents as being less capable at doing so than she. As Senator Edwards rather bluntly put it, obviously aware of Obama's post-Iowa surge in the polls: "...I didn't hear these kind of attacks from Senator Clinton when she was ahead. Now that she's not, we hear them." Clinton didn't seem to take too kindly to this. Have a look for yourself:



Indeed, even in just the few days since Iowa, Clinton has been talking more about her ability to be an agent of change, a marked departure from her previous tendency to tout her experience and qualifications as making her the most "ready" to be president. This would seem to be an effort to tap into what evidently attracted so many Iowa voters to Obama -- the fact that he has not spent much time in Washington relative to others running for the White House, and therefore, that he potentially brings a fresh perspective. In the process of changing her message though, she has begun to "go negative" against Obama, and it was this new tactic to which Edwards was referring when he apparently got under Hillary's skin. It was a telling moment for a candidate who, heretofore, has been remarkably disciplined, perpetually "on message", and who has never seemed to allow herself to be rattled. Her reaction, I think, not only reflected the stress she is feeling, it also was indicative of the fact that Edwards had managed to effectively "zing" her. Unfortunately for Hillary, this is likely the clip that most will see from the debate rather than any of her "better" moments from last night.

So yes, I would say that the former First Lady is feeling the heat. Should she lose New Hampshire by anything close to the margins suggested by these polls, though, Hillary will have her feet held to the fire more than ever before in her political career. It will be interesting to watch how she and her campaign will respond if faced with the very real possibility of losing the nomination to Obama. Stay tuned!

About Last Night...

Last night in the Iowa Caucuses, the 2008 Presidential Race was altered significantly for both Republicans and Democrats. In case you didn't already know, on the Republican side, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won with 34% of the vote. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney finished second with 25%, followed by former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and Senator John McCain with 13% each. As for the Democrats, Illinois Senator Barack Obama won with 38% of the vote, followed by former North Carolina Senator John Edwards at 30%, and New York Senator Hillary Clinton with 29%. For both parties now, the road to the nomination has become far more interesting than anticipated.








Looking first at the Republicans, Mike Huckabee not only won the Caucus, he gave himself and his campaign some much needed legitimacy, and in all likelihood effectively ended Mitt Romney's quest for the White House. Romney had put many of his "eggs" in the Iowa basket. He had spent more money and more time there than any other GOP candidate, and until about a month ago, was the odds-on favorite to win there. Mike Huckabee, on the other hand, started his campaign as a little-known, poorly-funded "fringe" candidate -- someone who sought to appeal to the evangelical, "Religious Right" of the Republican Party. Until late November, Huckabee was simply the folksy, witty, former Baptist Minister who had managed to have the best laugh lines in the circus-like debates of the last six months. (I underestimated him, myself. In the first of my "series" -- though it never really became a series! -- of blog entries about the candidates for the party nominations, I examined Hillary Clinton. I also specifically mentioned those candidates on whom I would not be wasting your time or mine, and Huckabee was one of them). After Thanksgiving, however, (and in my own defense, after my aforementioned blog entry!), Huckabee instead became the folksy, witty, former minister who was now leading many of the polls in Iowa. (Have a look at this graphical representation of the Iowa polling over the last year, courtesy of the fantastic Real Clear Politics website. Seeing it illustrated in that way only further underscores how remarkable a feat it was for Governor Huckabee). As often happens in politics, momentum begets media attention and media attention begets more momentum. By mid-December, Huckabee was reveling in national media interviews and newfound strength, and he posed a serious threat to Romney's chances to win in Iowa. The threat proved very real, and Huckabee defeated Romney soundly -- probably far beyond even the worst-case scenarios envisioned by Romney and his advisers. The race for the Republican nomination is now completely turned on its head.

As for the Democrats, last night was -- regardless of how her campaign tried to spin it both before and after the Caucus -- a terrible night for Hillary Clinton. Hillary was viewed by many to be the inevitable Democratic Nominee, and Iowa was thought to be just the first step in her victorious path to the nomination. (Again, if you look back at my blog entry on Hillary from a few months ago, you'll see the many, many advantages she had, and the resulting unlikelihood of her losing Iowa). Like Romney, however, she not only lost, but she lost badly. In fact, she didn't even finish in second place, but in third. The Clinton Campaign seemed to at least partially see this coming given their strenuous efforts in the last week to downplay both the importance of the Iowa Caucus and the expectations for her performance in it. Despite these efforts, though, there is simply no denying that last night's results have created a significant chink in Senator Clinton's political armor. Unlike Romney, however, Senator Clinton has good reason for optimism. She has led in the polls in New Hampshire (the site of the next key contest on Tuesday) from the very beginning, and should she manage to emerge victorious there, she and her campaign would be back on very solid ground. For Barack Obama, the significance of his victory (and the size of his margin of victory) are invaluably important and beneficial. He has lingered for months as the biggest threat to Hillary Clinton's winning the nomination, but with a decisive win in Iowa, he has proved that there is more to him and to his campaign than many realized. The odd machinations that make up the Iowa Caucus process were tailor-made for Clinton's campaign. She had the money, she had the field organization, and she had the experienced advisors. Obama wasn't hurting for campaign money, but he was relying on advisors with less experience, an untested field workers, and on the voter turnout of young and politically inexperienced Iowans. According to a closer look at last night's numbers, however, they came through for him, as Obama not only won the youth vote, he also won the majority of votes among women. (57% of voters under the age of 30 chose Obama, as did 40% of first-time caucus voters. Additionally, 35% of the women who voted last night chose Obama, compared to 30% for Hillary). This victory in the female vote is particularly worrisome for the Clinton Campaign, as support from women has long been viewed as a core source of strength for Senator Clinton. So while Clinton is not politically "dead", she is certainly bloodied, and in politics, it doesn't take long for the sharks to appear.

So what now? Well, for both parties, all eyes turn to New Hampshire where next Tuesday, that state holds its very important primary. In the Republican race, Romney's campaign will be truly over if he fails to win there. Unfortunately for Romney -- and with kudos to the McCain Campaign -- Senator McCain now leads in the polls. Looking at McCain's strategy over the last month in light of last night's results and with hindsight being 20/20, it's clear that he and his advisers made a bold and shrewd calculation. They saw Huckabee's rise in Iowa, felt it had legs and credibility (when many others didn't), and realized that if he were to defeat Romney in the caucus, the former Massachusetts Governor would be badly limping into New Hampshire. Banking on this outcome, McCain has spent nearly all of his time, money and energy in New Hampshire in the last month, while Romney tried to shore up his weakening support in Iowa. The strategy worked, McCain now leads in the polls, and Romney now comes into New Hampshire not merely limping, but in a wheelchair and on life-support. It was only a few months ago that the McCain Campaign was in disarray, desperately low in campaign funds, and polling very poorly. Should Senator McCain win New Hampshire, he can justifiably label himself "the Comeback Kid" (as Bill Clinton famously did in 1992). A McCain victory would likely catapult the Arizona Senator to front-runner status in the race for the GOP Nomination, setting up a showdown with Huckabee in the South Carolina Primary in late January, and with Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the Florida Primary three days later. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee will undoubtedly enjoy a nice "bump" in the polls (and presumably in media attention and campaign contributions) following his Iowa triumph. It's unlikely, though, that his momentum will be sufficient for a victory in New Hampshire -- a state in which he has spent almost no time or money and whose relatively liberal electorate would not tend to be enamored with his conservative social positions. On the other hand, the "bump" will definitely bode well for "Huck" in the important South Carolina contest in which he can again count on a solid number of evangelical, socially conservative Republicans to turn out and vote for him. Perhaps most importantly, Huckabee and his efforts now have instant legitimacy and credibility after such a substantial win in Iowa. No longer a "fringe" candidate, Huckabee now will (deservedly) receive a great deal more media coverage and as mentioned previously, the momentum that accompanies it. If McCain wins in New Hampshire, Huckabee in South Carolina and Rudy in Florida, the race for the Republican Nomination will be wide open, and it will be a very exciting contest heading into "Super Tuesday" on February 5th when more than twenty states will hold their nominating contests.

On the Democratic side, New Hampshire has become an extremely high-stakes contest for Senators Clinton and Obama. Having never trailed in the Granite State's polls, Hillary may find herself in that unfamiliar position soon as she now has to expect and prepare for Obama to have his own "bump" from Iowa. Unlike the relatively crowded GOP field however, it's really a two-person race for the Democrats as John Edwards' distant second-place finish in Iowa likely spells the end of his campaign. Had Hillary bested Obama last night (or even finished a very close second), it's likely that Obama's campaign would be in serious trouble today, and that Hillary would be on a cakewalk to the nomination. That certainly isn't the case, however. Obama, who has not spent nearly the time or money in New Hampshire as Clinton has, will now gain in the same New Hampshire polls he has never led, and make it a real competition on Tuesday. The Iowa victory will also help Senator Obama with an issue that people are often reluctant to face head-on: his race. His race, however, (like Clinton's gender), is an unavoidable issue, and an issue that likely caused many New Hampshire voters (and voters nationwide, for that matter) to question his ultimate electability. In many ways, though, it's now as if the voters in the overwhelmingly White state of Iowa have given the people in subsequent primary and caucus states a reason to believe that an African-American could possibly win the presidency, and the "permission" to go ahead and vote for Obama. This could easily translate into new support for the Illinois Senator from undecided voters, independent voters, and supporters of other Democratic candidates who will not be continuing in the race for the nomination. If Obama manages to upset Clinton in New Hampshire, Hillary will be in serious trouble, as Obama's momentum would be almost insurmountable, and the resulting electoral snowball effect would likely propel him to the Democratic Nomination. Conversely, should Hillary hang on in New Hampshire, while it wouldn't guarantee her the nomination, she'd be very hard to beat given the amount of money and experience her campaign possesses. All the money and experience in the world, however, cannot ultimately trump the will of the people, and if New Hampshire spurns her as Iowa did, Hillary may be done.

Either way, we are looking at an extremely intense weekend of campaigning, as Mitt Romney and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Hillary Clinton, fight for their political lives in New Hampshire. Both the Republicans and the Democrats will hold debates there this weekend, and each promises to be the political equivalent of "must-see-TV", with the stakes as high as they've been at any point in the campaign thus far. Beyond that, we are most likely looking at an intense month or two of campaigning, and perhaps the first truly contested races for the nomination in the Republican and Democratic Parties since 1980 and 1992 respectively. For a political junkie like me, it doesn't get much better than this!


EDITORIAL NOTE: I again must apologize for the delay between blog entries. I am still working on a fairly lengthy and intensive entry that I hope to complete soon, but in the meantime, I couldn't resist weighing in on the Iowa Caucus. Thanks for reading!