The Gloves Are Off

First a quick recap of the weekend's events...

In Nevada, Mitt Romney won the Republican Caucus in decisive fashion, taking 51% of the vote to Ron Paul's 14%, John McCain's 13%, Mike Huckabee's 8%, Fred Thompson's 8%, and Rudy Giuliani's 4%. Romney benefited from being the only GOP candidate to devote significant time (and resources) to the state, and also was helped by a relatively large number of Mormon voters who overwhelmingly supported him. (Romney is also a member of the LDS Church).

Also on Saturday, John McCain won the South Carolina Republican Primary. McCain received 33% of the vote to Mike Huckabee's 30%, Fred Thompson's 16%, and Mitt Romney's 15%. This was an important win for McCain as he was able to overcome both Mike Huckabee, who had hoped that his evangelical background and southern roots would give him a win, and also to a lesser extent Fred Thompson, who bet it all on a strong finish in South Carolina. (Thompson dropped out of the race today, as I had predicted he would if he finished a distant third to McCain and Huckabee). Romney finished fourth, but had essentially abandoned his efforts there last week to focus on Nevada, thereby shrewdly lowering expectations for his South Carolina showing.

Now it's on to Florida for the Republican candidates, where the state will hold its primary on January 29th. McCain enters the Sunshine State in the strongest position after his wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and his growing status as the "establishment" candidate and/or the "inevitable" nominee. Romney's Nevada victory (and to some extent, his Michigan victory too) were largely ignored by the media in favor of the more contested South Carolina vote. As a result, it will be difficult for Romney to leverage his two victories for momentum in Florida. Huckabee's candidacy is weakened considerably. Should he have another weak showing in Florida next week, his campaign will be in dire straits. He seems to be aware of this, announcing today that he will have to take steps to save money and would even consider abandoning Florida before next week's primary if the outlook is bleak. In my opinion, the outlook is already bleak for "Huck", and I suspect he will fade out of view in the near future. (I do not, however, think he will drop out before Super Tuesday, where he undoubtedly thinks he can do well in states such as Alabama, Georgia, and his home state of Arkansas. It's my belief that he views those states as a chance to show some electoral strength for what appers to me to be his obvious desire to be vice president. After all, the longer he remains in the race, the more he hurts Mitt Romney, and therefore helps John McCain, and I think the former Arkansas Governor already has visions of McCain-Huckabee 2008 bumper stickers. I wouldn't be so sure, Governor, but that's a matter for another post). A weakened or absent Huckabee in Florida should help Romney there. Last but not least, we can't forget Rudy. Yes, Rudy Giuliani is also in Florida, and in fact has been in Florida for the last few weeks. He absolutely needs to win next week in order for his campaign to continue. (It is possible that a very close second-place would allow him to continue on to Super Tuesday, but in all likelihood, Florida is "must win" for Rudy). As of now, McCain holds a slight lead in Florida, but the race is close, and it's also crucial in determining who the GOP Nominee will be. I'll have more on Florida as it approaches next week.

In the Nevada Democratic Caucus, Hillary Clinton emerged with an important win, capturing 51% of the vote. Barack Obama finished second with 45%, and John Edwards a very distant third with 4%. This was a key victory for Hillary, as an Obama win would have again given him a great deal of momentum, and also renewed concerns about the strength of Clinton's candidacy. (In full disclosure, I predicted an Obama upset in my last post, and that is why I am not paid to prognosticate)!

The South Carolina Democratic Primary is this Saturday, and with polls showing Obama with a large lead, Hillary is largely spending her time elsewhere this week, and while she does have her husband campaigning there on her behalf, she still is effectively conceding the Palmetto State to Obama. The Illinois Senator will almost certainly go on to win South Carolina Saturday, essentially preventing either Clinton or Obama from staking a solid claim to the "front-runner" label, and setting up a Super Tuesday showdown between the two.

With the weekend recap out of the way, let's move on to "the main event"...

If you caught last week's Nevada Democratic Debate, you'll recall that both Clinton and Obama seemed to try very hard to avoid conflict and negativity. With Clinton's win in Nevada, perhaps Obama thinks the nomination is slipping away. Or maybe with the realization that Obama will win South Carolina, Hillary is frustrated that she can't seem to clinch what she and her campaign have long viewed as her "inevitable" Democratic Nomination. Either way, in a debate last night in South Carolina, both candidates seemed irritable, and to the delight of Republicans and political junkies alike, the gloves came off. For your enjoyment, here is a "highlight reel" of some of the more contentious exchanges from last night -- capped off with John Edwards asking one of the more ironic and unintentionally self-parodying questions of Campaign 2008 thus far:

Wow! Just imagine if Hillary had lost Nevada. Last night could have gotten really ugly!