There's an important Republican Debate tonight being held in Florida, the site of the next GOP Primary on Tuesday (January 29th). The three men for whom this debate most matters are John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Fred Thompson, as I mentioned last time, has dropped out of the race, and Mike Huckabee has essentially conceded Florida in order to focus his limited resources on Super Tuesday states that he and his campaign believe he can win. So let's take a look at where things stand for McCain, Romney and Giuliani, and why tonight's debate could be a good one...
McCain: The Arizona Senator has a narrow lead in Florida according to the latest RealClearPolitics Polling Average at 24.5% to Romney's 23.5%, and Giuliani's 18.8%. With important wins in the New Hampshire and South Carolina Primaries, McCain would likely cement his status as "The Frontrunner" with a win in Florida, and he would have the GOP Nomination all but locked up. In the debate tonight, McCain's challenges are two-fold. First, and put bluntly, he can't screw up. By that I mean he has to avoid any major verbal gaffes, erroneous statements or unseemly flashes of temper. Because he has the lead (albeit slight), if he can essentially play a Prevent Defense (pardon the football metaphor) tonight, he should be fine. His second challenge is more complicated, however. Florida is a closed primary, meaning that only registered Republican voters can vote in the state's Republican Primary. That means no independents -- typically a big source of support for McCain -- and no "crossover" Democratic voters. McCain needs to strengthen his support among the "base" of the Republican Party -- a group that is largely suspicious of his conservative bona fides (and rightfully so). There are several positions on which McCain finds himself at odds with much of the base. On immigration, McCain's policy isn't viewed as tough enough for most of those voters, and on the question of tax cuts, McCain's votes against the Bush Tax Cuts in 2001 and 2003 are unpleasant memories for many conservatives. In the previous debates, he really hasn't faced tough questioning on either issue, and so it will be interesting to see if tonight's moderator (Brian Williams of NBC News) chooses to bring them up.
Romney: Mitt Romney faces probably the toughest challenge tonight. The former Massachusetts Governor, coming off of wins in the Michigan Primary and Nevada Caucus, now trails McCain in Florida by a very thin margin. A Romney win in Florida would force the media (who are not apparently fond of Romney) to consider whether he, in fact, might be the new frontrunner, and the momentum from such a victory would be a great tailwind heading into Super Tuesday. Because of his considerable personal wealth, Romney can afford to buy advertising and pay staff in many (if not all) of the Super Tuesday states. The other GOP candidates, by contrast, are relying strictly on outside contributions, and at this point, are all in somewhat tenuous financial situations of varying degrees. With Fred Thompson out of the race and Mike Huckabee essentially not competing in Florida, Romney has an enormous opportunity to try to capture the conservative Republican vote that might otherwise have gone to Thompson or Huckabee. McCain and Giuliani will likely divide the majority of the moderate Republican vote, and so from a strategic standpoint, events are unfolding rather nicely for Romney. As evidenced by the fact that he is still trailing McCain in the polls, however, it's clear that Romney has yet to convince some voters that he is the best candidate for the GOP Nomination. Tonight's debate presents a big chance for Romney to try to sway some of those voters. To do so, he needs to make clear the differences he and John McCain have -- something that is far easier said (or written) than done. In past debates when Romney has attempted to make a contrast between his views and those of McCain, the Arizona Senator has cried foul, claiming that Romney is "attacking" him or "going negative". The media, fans of McCain's, have perpetuated that message, and so in the last debate, Romney seemed very hesitant to do or say anything that might be perceived as attack/negative politics. Others in the media and some Republican voters, however, have criticized Romney's past debate performances as being "too scripted", suggested he wasn't "tough enough", and opined that he didn't do enough to separate himself from McCain. So in a sense, Romney is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. It will be very interesting tonight to watch how Mitt Romney attempts to handle this Catch-22. If he can effectively contrast himself with McCain without being accused of attacking McCain, it could be a very big night for Romney, and an important step in setting up what would be an immensely important victory for him in Florida next week.
Giuliani: Quite simply, Rudy is on the ropes. The good folks at RealClearPolitics have a graphical representation of the Florida polls -- starting in May of last year and ending with the most recent results. Take a look at it here (scroll down a bit and note that Rudy's numbers are represented by the purple line), and it's quite evident that the former NYC Mayor is in trouble. Independent of any other external factors, this graph would be bad news for a candidate. When, however, the external factors of Giuliani's decline are considered, the already poor outlook becomes downright dismal. Several weeks ago, Rudy and his campaign made the tactical choice to essentially remove all resources and staff from all of the earlier primary states in which his fellow GOP Candidates have been competing. Giuliani has since spent all of his time and money in Florida, and for awhile, this was reflected in polls that showed him with a considerable lead. The thinking behind the strategy arguably made sense: if different candidates were winning the different primaries, they would all come to Florida and there would be no clear frontrunner. Rudy, having devoted everything to Florida, would have what he and his strategists expected to be a solid lead. He would then win in Florida, and take that momentum into the Super Tuesday states where he could vault to the front of the Republican pack. It was a gamble, but as the primaries indeed did produce three different winners, many began to think that Rudy's risky strategy might just work. What actually occurred, however, is that as the other primaries began to unfold and as Huckabee, McCain and Romney each had victories, the resulting media attention and momentum clearly helped their Florida polling numbers. Even though Rudy was campaigning all over the state, the national media were now focused on the other primaries and their winners, and since Giuliani was essentially not competing in any of these contests, he was not a part of that media discussion. As McCain and Romney have joined Rudy in Florida over the last week, their presence has further helped their numbers and continued to erode Giuliani's. Rudy himself has essentially admitted that he must win Florida in order for his campaign to continue, and so if his recent slide in the polls accurately reflects how he will finish next week, Giuliani's quest for the White House will come to an end. Rudy will probably be forced to go on the attack in tonight's debate, and it will be fascinating to see whether he chooses to train his sights on McCain, Romney or both.
One last thing to watch for tonight is whether or not Mike Huckabee continues to serve as a veritable stalking horse for John McCain. As mentioned last time, I believe "Huck" is angling for the #2 spot on a ticket with McCain. Since he has nothing to lose in Florida, I suspect Huckabee will aggressively go after both Romney and Rudy Giuliani. In that sense, he does McCain's "dirty work" for him, and as an added bonus, McCain owes him. I could be wrong, but it's something to keep an eye on this evening.
I would encourage anyone who can to tune in tonight. The debate will air on MSNBC at 9:00pm Eastern Time. The stakes are huge, the sub-plots fascinating, and I suspect a lively debate will ensue. Enjoy!
No comments:
Post a Comment