Today is the so-called "Potomac Primary", in which Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia will all hold their primary elections. Looking at the latest polls, Barack Obama has a significant lead. The Clinton Campaign seems to agree, downplaying expectations for Hillary Clinton's performance in today's contests, and already looking ahead to Texas and Ohio, holding their primaries on March 4th.
Barack Obama has attained significant momentum, both on the back of his strong showing on Super Duper Tuesday on February 5th, and after sweeping all four contests this past weekend, beating Hillary Clinton in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska and Maine. In fact, according to some news organizations' count of Democratic Delegates, he may have opened up a slight lead over Clinton in the delegate count, and if not, he is right on her tail. Remarkably, the Junior Senator from Illinois has already (or is on the verge of) robbing Hillary of "frontrunner" status. Victories today of the magnitude predicted by the polls would almost surely cement Obama as the favorite for the Democratic Nomination -- something that was almost unfathomable even as recently as two months ago.
If Hillary is able to somehow pull out a victory in Virginia or Maryland today -- and Virginia probably represents her best shot at doing so, albeit a distant one -- she would be positioned to reclaim some of her lost momentum. At this point, however, that looks unlikely, and we should prepare ourselves for a spate of news stories in the coming days about Obama's ascendance and Hillary's imminent demise. When you see or read these stories, however, keep in mind that the Clintons will not go down without a fight, and they are not afraid to punch below the belt. So while the media may declare the Democratic race as being all-but-over if Obama wins big tonight, the reality is that Hillary & Co. should not yet be counted out -- not by a long shot.
On the Republican side, tonight's results are both less suspenseful and less important. John McCain has essentially secured the GOP Nomination, though someone needs to get that message to Mike Huckabee, who continues on with his campaign, seemingly unaware of the fact that he has no chance of capturing the nomination. When confronted with the staggering mathematical odds against his ability to overtake McCain, Huckabee responded with one of his now typical corny lines:
"I know some people say that the math doesn't work out. Folks, I didn't major in math. I majored in miracles, and I still believe in those too".A miracle, however, is exactly what it would take at this point for "Huck" to surpass "Mac", and to put it bluntly, it isn't going to happen. Huckabee would be well-served to follow the honorable lead of Mitt Romney and withdraw from the race after he loses -- as it appears he will -- all of today's primaries. By doing so, he would allow the Republican Party to begin its acceptance of (and in the case of "true" conservatives, their reconciliation with) McCain as the GOP Nominee. I frankly believe that Huckabee's insistence on continuing his futile effort is entirely ego-driven, born of a hope to be tapped as McCain's running mate, or at the very least, to be able to command healthy fees for future book deals, television appearances and speeches.
Tonight it appears that McCain will win all three contests, and at that point, I hope that Huckabee will see the light, do the right thing, and remove himself from the race. The process of reconciling conservative Republicans with McCain is not going to be an easy one, and it's going to take some time. The sooner that wing of the GOP and their nominee-to-be can bury the hatchet, the better the chances for McCain and all other Republicans in November. Huckabee is the only thing preventing this from starting now, and in a time where it appears the Democrats may continue to battle for weeks and even months to come, the opportunity for the GOP to settle on their nominee now and turn their attention to November is an important advantage. It's an advantage that cannot be tapped, however, until Huckabee quits, and every day he remains in the race is almost certainly diminishing his chances of being a part of a McCain Administration.
With all of this said, however, if we've learned anything during this political season thus far it is that the polls are often wrong. That's why, as always, we await the actual voters' decisions, and tonight will be the latest installment in what has already been an entertaining and exciting campaign.
Does Braggingwrites make any predictions on how the long and how difficult McCain's potential reconciliation with the right will be? Would the ultra conservative right ever try to sabotage McCain to promote a democrate that they would then hope to thwart and unseat after 4 years?
ReplyDeleteLaura,
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, thanks for reading and thanks for the comment/question. It's a VERY good question you ask.
As for the first part of your question about how long and how difficult McCain's reconciliation with the right would be, the short answer is that I don't know! I can give you an educated guess, though. I think we're probably beginning to see the reconciliation begin, and the biggest step in that process was McCain's speech at CPAC last week. He went there knowing a hostile audience could await him, and he quite rightly addressed directly some of the concerns that the "conservative wing" of the GOP have with him. The speech was, for the most part, well-received, and that was important. Obviously McCain is also helped by the fact that he's essentially the only man left standing. So, unless Republicans want to vote for Obama or Hillary, the choice they face is to vote for McCain or simply stay home in November. When push comes to shove, I suspect most Republican voters will show up for McCain on Election Day, even if they aren't necessarily wholehearted in their support. The biggest challenge McCain faces going forward is the veritable war that has been declared on him by Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and other influential conservative talk radio hosts. It's not clear that McCain needs Limbaugh, Hannity et. al. to effusively sing his praises, but I think he'd be very appreciative if they would at least declare a ceasefire.
So again, it's not going to be an easy reconciliation, and it's certainly not going to be immediate either. Huckabee needs to leave the race now that he is LITERALLY mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination. His departure, leaving McCain as the undisputed presumptive nominee, would be another big step in moving the reconciliation along. When that happens (and despite Huckabee's continued insistence on staying the race -- as he said last night, "until the last second of the clock has sounded" -- I suspect Huck could be out as soon as this week), the GOP will begin to see the benefits and advantages of coming together behind McCain -- particularly as contrasted with the ongoing and dramatic battle between Clinton and Obama on the Democratic side.
Moving on to your second question about whether the "ultra conservative right" of the Republican Party would "sabotage McCain" and effectively support the Democrat who they would hope to defeat in 2012, once again, it's a good question and the answer remains to be seen. I've certainly seen talk about that in the "blogosphere" and even from some relatively "mainstream" conservative pundits. The logic behind that, as best I can follow it, is that the GOP needs to have what amounts to a "reformation", and those who support this believe that the way to do that is through losing the White House in 2008, and then, per their theory, letting the newly-elected Democratic President crash and burn, allowing for a conservative resurgence in 2012. (The people who promote this cite the example of the Gerald Ford loss to Jimmy Carter in 1976 -- Ford like McCain was somewhat distrusted by the right wing of the GOP. They feel that the loss in the election, followed by Carter's disastrous presidency, allowed the Republican Party to find its true self and unite behind Ronald Reagan in 1980, leading to more than a decade of GOP dominance).
So, that's the THEORY, but I don't buy it. First of all, I think most of the people who advocate for this are probably just grumpy Republicans disappointed in the electoral outlook for the GOP in 2008. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, there is no clear "Ronald Reagan" figure waiting in the wings to assume the conservative mantle and lead the Republicans to glory in 2012. Thirdly, in today's world, it's naive to simply suspect that a Democrat (or any president of any party) would fail in his or her first term. Geopolitical events, terrorist attacks and the other realities of today are unpredictable, and can dramatically and immediately alter the political landscape. Therefore, to essentially "tank" an election in the hope of emerging stronger the next time is a risk that I suspect most practical Republicans aren't willing to take. Lastly, I think most Republican voters simply won't stay at home or sit idly by as a President Obama or President Clinton emerges. When push comes to shove and GOP voters are in the voting booth with a choice between John McCain and either Obama or Clinton, I truly believe they'll pull the lever for McCain. I suspect that will be much-discussed in the coming weeks and months (and perhaps even all the way through November), but I think that in the end, Republicans will come out to support the Republican Nominee -- now certain to be Senator John McCain.
Thanks again for reading, and I appreciate the thoughtful question!
Best regards,
Bragging Writes