Wanna Get Away? So Do Republicans...

All vacations are good. Some vacations, though, are better than others. A truly great vacation is marked by the ability to all but forget the worries or stresses of work or home awaiting your return. Then, before you know it, there are only three days left, then two days, and soon those concerns and anxieties creep back into your consciousness. And while you know the end is near and the real world must soon be faced again, another drink, another swim, or any of the other wonderful distractions of the trip allow you to sweep it all under the rug for just a bit longer. But deep down, you know what’s coming on Monday morning.

If this sounds familiar to you or is something you’ve experienced, then you – regardless of political affiliation – know what it feels like to be a Republican today. Because today and for the last two months, Republicans have effectively been on a vacation courtesy of the Democratic Party.

For Republicans, the best part of the ongoing nomination battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is that with the focus squarely on the increasingly hostile and internecine squabble between the two candidates, the GOP faithful have been able to temporarily forget the candidate who they will put forth against the Democrats’ ultimate victor in November.

A stronger Republican candidate would be much better than tied with or slightly trailing Clinton and Obama in general election polls. A GOP candidate with solid and sincere support from the party’s base would see his campaign coffers overflowing with contributions. Neither is the case for John McCain, however.

Despite the thumping that Obama took at Wednesday night’s debate and despite the fact that it will “take a village” to convince Hillary Clinton to drop out, the reality is that this wonderful trip is coming to an end sooner than the GOP would like to think. Even if Hillary holds on to win in Pennsylvania, current polls indicate she’ll likely lose to Obama in both Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later, putting the nail in the coffin of her presidential hopes, and putting an end to the Republican vacation.

Over the last two months, Republicans have delighted in watching Obama squirm under the uncomfortable scrutiny of the Reverend Wright controversy, then watched in amazement as the media seemed to forget it entirely while tripping over themselves to exalt his much-ballyhooed “More Perfect Union” speech about race in America. GOP voters again high-fived as the Illinois Senator stuck his foot in his mouth last week in San Francisco, declaring that small-town voters in Pennsylvania are “bitter” and “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”, then again watching as he apparently suffered no backlash in the polls as a result.

If Ronald Reagan was “the Teflon President”, many Republicans probably think they are seeing the closest thing to a Teflon Candidate in Barack Obama. While Obama’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities are apparent and likely not yet fully discovered, an honest Republican would admit that Obama and his campaign show every sign of being winners. This is evident in the size of the crowds he attracts, the frenzy into which he whips those crowds, and the staggering fundraising totals he has continued to post every month.

An honest Republican would also accept the reality that current political circumstances nearly guarantee a Democratic victory in November. The Republican incumbent continues to garner anemic approval ratings, the economy is hurting, and the Iraq War remains very unpopular among the majority of Americans. Perhaps a truly phenomenal GOP candidate could overcome these long odds, but even then, probably only with the help of a horrendous (think Dukakis or worse) Democratic nominee.

John McCain, though, is not a truly phenomenal candidate, and Barack Obama has shown no sign that he would be a horrendous nominee – particularly if the majority of the media remain in the tank for him, and if the majority of voters continue to ignore some very real concerns about him, seemingly transfixed by his brilliant and eloquent (if empty) rhetoric.

Is an Obama victory a foregone conclusion? Not definitely. A lot can happen between now and November – both geopolitically and on the campaign trail – that could alter the electoral landscape in ways impossible to predict today. McCain could catch fire somehow, or Obama could crash and burn. All of these what-ifs and contingencies, however, are the stuff of happy thoughts born of the surf, sun and umbrella drinks the Democrats have given Republicans over the last two months.

Unfortunately for Republicans, when the alarm clock goes off on the last day of this wonderful getaway, they will awaken to the harsh truth that John McCain just doesn’t feel like a winner in November – a deep-down realization that while hard to accept, is impossible to ignore – even while on vacation.

(This post can also be seen at Splice Today: http://splicetoday.com/).