"BraggingWrites": Live from Ohio! -- Part Two

OK...where were we?

So as I was saying earlier, the Obama Campaign will try to paint anything other than HUGE Clinton victories in Ohio and Texas as an effective victory for Obama, and a sign that Hillary should face the mathematical reality and withdraw from the race.

Again, while the mathematical reality is daunting for Hillary, I suspect a victory in even ONE of either Ohio or Texas -- even by the slimmest of margins -- will be enough for she and her campaign to continue on to the Pennsylvania Primary on April 22nd. That's right -- a full SIX WEEKS away. The very idea of the Democratic battle between Clinton and Obama continuing well into next month is enough to cause the GOP, as Republican Strategist Mike Murphy said Sunday on "Meet the Press, to be "drunk and high-fiving". As a political junkie, I might join in the merriment!

So let's look at a few possible scenarios for tonight's results, and then at what could and/or should transpire...

Scenario 1 -- Obama wins Texas and Ohio:
- If Obama wins both Texas and Ohio tonight -- regardless of the margin of his victories -- the Democratic contest will be over. Clinton would either accept reality and withdraw of her own volition, or the pressure from others within the Democratic Party for her to withdraw will be too great for her to overcome. (In full disclosure, this is the outcome I predicted last week after watching the final debate between Clinton and Obama).

Scenario 2 -- Obama wins Texas and Clinton wins Ohio: This one is tough. Even as recently as a week ago, this outcome would still have likely spelled the end of the Clinton Campaign. But in the last week, it strikes me that the Clintons have been able to effectively "move the goal posts" or "lower the bar" such that she would declare an Ohio victory to be significant enough to merit continuing her campaign. She would argue that she's won the most important states for the General Election in November (California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts -- and, she would claim dubiously -- Florida and Michigan). Obama, on the other hand, would make the case that his delegate lead is just simply insurmountable, and he would probably have the backing of the vast majority of Democratic Party heavweights. He (echoed by chorus of Democratic pooh-bahs) would call for Hillary to withdraw. He would also throw cold water on her claim of victories in Michigan and Florida. In Michigan, Obama was not even on the ballot; in Florida the candidates all agreed not to campaign. Both were the results of the DNC's penalization of the two states for moving their primaries ahead on the political calendar. In the end, I don't think she could survive this scenario, because I think the pressure on her to quit would be tremendous, and the prospect of the damage her ultimately futile battle could do to the Democratic Party would only increase that pressure. But...and this is a BIG "but"...Hillary does NOT want to lose, she does NOT want to quit, she REALLY wants to be President, and as I've written here several times before, the Clintons won't hesitate to fight and aren't afraid to fight dirty. This scenario, therefore, is a bit of a wildcard.

Back to meetings and work...I will wrap this up with "Part Three" when I am in the Columbus Airport waiting for my inevitably delayed flight to LaGuardia...