Wednesday, August 20, 2008

"Dream Ticket" Déjà Vu

Here's a slight follow-up to today's earlier post: Can Obama Close the Deal?

As I wrote, with all of the bumps in the road for Obama and his team lately, it should come as no surprise that the Obama Campaign leaked Monday evening that his vice presidential selection was imminent. It was a good move, taking the focus away from Obama’s shaky weekend performance at Saddleback, and probably attempting to preemptively bury news of a McCain lead in the polls that their internal polling may have already indicated was coming. Indeed, since Monday night, the Obama veep frenzy has been at full steam, and the three names that are most commonly mentioned now as the likely choice are Delaware Senator Joe Biden (this week’s fashionable pick), Indiana Senator Evan Bayh (the flavor du jour in early August), and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine (the first trial balloon floated by the Obama camp last month). Each man has his strengths and weaknesses, and Biden and Bayh in particular would represent very safe choices. But I smell a rat, and I think Obama has a surprise up his sleeve.

All of this week's buzz and especially the heavy focus on Biden, Bayh and Kaine may be nothing more than smoke and mirrors. In fact, I suspect this is an elaborate ruse designed to give maximum impact and surprise value to the person who I now believe (and who Republicans most fear) Obama will tap as his running mate: Senator Hillary Clinton. Yes, I’m aware of the many reasons why he wouldn’t or shouldn’t pick her, and I feel certain that in his heart-of-hearts, he does not truly want to pick her. But if today's Reuters/Zogby poll is correct and he is now trailing McCain, he may just need Hillary, her electoral strength, and perhaps most importantly, her supporters. Choosing Clinton would ensure that next week’s convention would be a veritable love-in for the Democratic Party, and the groundbreaking ticket of an African-American and a woman would be historic manna from heaven for the media. The GOP largely recognizes this, and I think any realistic Republican would admit that if Obama picks Hillary, it’s game, set and match for the Democrats.

Could the “dream ticket” become a reality? More and more, I think it just may.

(A version of this post can also be seen at amNewYork's Politirazzi).

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