Mixed Emotions

It has certainly been an interesting few days for Sarah Palin, her family, and the Republican Party. As indicated here on Friday, I was extremely enthusiastic about John McCain's selection of Palin as his running mate. This enthusiasm only grew over the weekend as I was able to hear more of her on the stump, and also to gauge the almost unanimously positive reactions of the people to whom I spoke. But then, on Monday, news broke that her 17-year old daughter Bristol was pregnant, and I began to feel far less optimistic about Palin and the overall chances for the ticket.

Full of newfound doubts, on Monday, I wrote the following, which now appears at Splice Today:

Well, it was a fine three-day run for the McCain campaign, and Republicans in general. As we went to bed last Thursday night, it appeared McCain was on the verge of tapping Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty for the veep slot, and the more I thought about that, I was disappointed, particularly when juxtaposed with Obama’s acceptance speech. Pawlenty is qualified, but he is essentially the personification of “boring white guy.” Friday morning by the time I got to work, the room was buzzing about the rumor that McCain had instead chosen the nearly unknown Sarah Palin. Soon it was confirmed, and I was thrilled. I was familiar with her, but thought she was a long shot at best, particularly with the cloud of an investigation involving the Alaska public safety commission hanging over her. Now that she had been picked, though, I assumed that the team vetting McCain’s potential running mates had looked at the situation closely and determined she had done no wrong, or at least that the controversy wasn’t sufficiently detrimental to disqualify her from being chosen. What’s that saying about the folly of assumptions? Something about making an ass out of you and me?

Friday’s official introduction of Palin energized Republicans; many probably had their first genuine moment of enthusiasm about voting for McCain. To the extent that enthusiasm extended to their wallets, the windfall of contributions the campaign received over the weekend seemed to confirm GOP voters’ newfound excitement. In talking to a variety of friends and relatives of varying degrees of political interest and multiple political leanings Friday, I found the reaction to Palin uniformly positive. Palin’s enthusiasm, her verve, her genuineness, her refreshing departure from typical Washington politics and politicians—all were among the attributes positively cited by those I spoke to. Perhaps more importantly, though, her conservative bona fides are unassailable, and for a Republican base still suspicious of McCain’s sincerity on social issues, this was a choice that put many of those lingering concerns to rest. Over the weekend, McCain’s rallies had an energy level higher than any his campaign has seen so far. Record crowds turned out to see the Alaska governor in the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Predictably, the media questioned her experience (despite their general disinclination to do the same for Barack Obama), but in reality, she’s not much less experienced than Obama, and by virtue of having even a day of executive experience, she bests that of Obama, McCain and Joe Biden combined. Whether intentional or not, in a brilliant stroke of political jujitsu, every time the experience of the #2 person on the GOP ticket was questioned, the focus was implicitly or sub-consciously turned back to the inexperience of Barack Obama—the man at the top of the Democratic ticket.

But the subsequent news about Bristol Palin’s pregnancy reminded me of that moment in movies when the thriving dance party is suddenly interrupted by the sound of a record scratching. Was she properly vetted? On its face, the issue of her daughter’s pregnancy is just not a big deal. Nearly every family has had a similar instance, and based on the Palin family’s statement about the issues, it sounds as though they are dealing with it in a loving and unified way. But it is a very big deal in its implications. Does her daughter’s teenage pregnancy make her unfit to be the vice president? Of course not. But if McCain knew about this when he selected her, it raises serious doubts about his judgment and political acumen. If he indeed knew, and if he decided it was not sufficiently damaging to stop him from choosing her, then his campaign should have made this fact known shortly after unveiling her on Friday. Surely that would have been preferable to the bombshell news breaking on the first day of the Republican National Convention and in the midst of one of McCain’s only true momentum surges this year. I frankly don’t believe he did know, and if his vetters couldn’t unearth that, is there anything else that McCain’s campaign doesn’t know about Palin? And if Palin herself didn’t tell him, what does that tell us about her?

In general, it seems that most of the same conservative bloggers and writers who were heralding her choice Friday were now downplaying the political implications of her daughter’s pregnancy. The pro-life crowd is predictably ecstatic that Bristol Palin was choosing to keep her baby, and the emerging party line seems to be that the manner in which Sarah Palin and her husband had embraced the news only made her more appealing as a mother, and further, how dare the media and the Democrats invade the Palin’s privacy in this way! Obama, to his credit, almost immediately announced that the families of candidates should be off-limits, and that, oh, by the way, his mother had only been 18 when he was born. This was a classy reaction from Obama, and it was also politically pitch-perfect. Magnanimity is the shrewd play here, and Obama and Democrats will now sit back and give Palin and the GOP all the rope they need to hang themselves. As for Republicans and conservatives now claiming that this will have no backlash (or even that it will somehow be a net positive), they are simply kidding themselves—drunk, I can only assume, from a weekend bender of political enthusiasm after several painful years on the wagon.

Palin was unquestionably a risky choice for McCain, and for the pick to work out she had to be controversy-free until Election Day. While this was the gamble I thought McCain had to take in order to change the game and catalyze his candidacy, it was only worth it if he and his campaign were 100 percent certain there were no surprises about Palin waiting in the wings. Obviously they weren’t, and so in apparently failing to properly vet her, McCain will now find his judgment questioned, and rightfully so. As a committed Republican, I find myself shaking my head in disbelief and disappointment.

Tim Pawlenty is looking pretty good right about now. Perhaps there’s something to be said for the boring white guy after all.

Since writing that, however, I have started to return to the happy, optimistic Bragg of the weekend. Well, almost...

Here's the bottom line: I still think this was a terrific pick by McCain. I think Palin is a star already, and on her way to even bigger and better things (regardless of whether that ascendance begins with the vice presidency this time around or not). I am extremely interested in watching her speak tonight at the Republican National Convention, and I am even looking forward to watching her debate Joe Biden next month. On the other hand, I feel like what could have been the absolutely perfect pick has been somewhat tainted, even if only slightly. I think that to take the risk McCain took in picking her, the whole package (the candidate, the vetting process, etc.) had to be pristine, and it has not been. A part me of me, then, still feels deflated and disappointed, but then on the other hand, is it possible that all of this could still become a positive? Can the McCain-Palin ticket bounce back after a rough few days? If you'd asked me Monday -- as evidenced by my Splice post above -- I'd have said there was no way to come back from this. But the more I think about it and the more I watch the media (predictably) overplay their hand, the more I think this whole thing could, in fact, boomerang in Palin's favor.

The aggressiveness and borderline glee with which liberal bloggers, the mainstream media and some Democrats have attacked Palin is astonishing. The reason the news of Bristol Palin's pregancy even came to light at all is because hateful bloggers at Daily Kos (a preeminent liberal blog) were alleging that Palin had faked her most recent pregnancy (which resulted in the birth of her son, Trig, 5 months old, who suffers from Down Syndrome) in order to cover up her daughter's. In other words, they were alleging that Trig was in fact Palin's grandson. It was truly despicable. The Obama Campaign itself had to back down from their initial official reaction after the consensus held that it had been overly hostile. The media have, as expected, questioned her experience despite their willingness, by and large, to allow questions about Obama's -- the person at the top of the Democratic ticket -- to go unasked. Some reporters have questioned her ability to run for (much less serve as) vice president while still being able to adequately mother her children, a blatantly sexist inquiry. Has anyone ever asked Barack Obama if he feels he can be a good father to his two young daughters while running for (much less serving as) president?

The reality is that she is hardly less qualified than Obama no matter how one measures experience. And if executive experience is the benchmark, well then she has more than Obama, McCain and Biden combined. The fact that Obama on Tuesday felt compelled to compare his experience with that of Palin's -- again, the person in the #2 spot on the opposing ticket -- shows not only some measure of concern on the part of Obama and his campaign, but also the political brilliance of the Palin choice. Going one step further, McCain's campaign responded today with a new ad addressing the experience question, and I think it's fairly effective. Have a look:


I'm going to have to cut this shorter than I had wanted, but I'll be back later this week with more. In summary, I absolutely wish that the McCain Campaign had revealed Bristol Palin's pregnancy at the outset (even as a part of Sarah Palin's biography -- "expectant grandmother," maybe???) rather than let the news come out on the first day of the Convention, but perhaps they had their reasons. If I have learned one thing over the last few weeks, it's that I have consistently underestimated the political instincts of the McCain Campaign. Perhaps this is all part of their grand plan? Whether it is or not -- and whether that plan will work -- remain to be seen.

Tonight's speech would have been make-or-break for her even without the distractions of the last few days, but because of it, the stakes are astronomically high for Palin as she prepares for her primetime address to the GOP Delegates and, in all likelihood, millions of Americans watching at home. Here's hoping it's her turn to hit a home run!

Will McCain Swing for the Fences?

As we finally enter the homestretch of the 2008 Campaign, Barack Obama should probably have a 5- to 10-point lead in the polls, but instead finds himself effectively tied with (or even trailing) John McCain. In generic poll after generic poll, Democrats are decisively favored over Republicans, yet for some reason, Obama lags. The Obama Campaign knows this, is nervous about it, and their anxiety has started to show. In choosing Joe Biden as his running mate, Obama made a tacit admission that a bolstering of his experience and qualifications – particularly with regard to foreign policy – was necessary. Biden is not likely to do any harm for Obama’s chances, particularly given that I would expect the Obama Campaign to have him speak only on a scripted basis to avoid his infamous propensity to put his foot in his mouth. On the other hand, it’s difficult to make the argument that choosing Biden will help much either. Would a president and vice president who were both sitting senators – Biden for 35 years – really represent a departure from the “same old Washington politics”? Does that truly represent change?

Switching gears, John McCain made a colossal mistake last week. Just at the moment when he seemed to truly be gaining some momentum, he committed a gaffe that will likely haunt him all the way until Election Day. Asked by two reporters from Politico.com how many houses he and his wife own, McCain offered the following answer:

“I think – I’ll have my staff get to you – It’s condominiums where – I’ll have them get to you”.

Wow. That one hurt. In McCain’s defense, were one to take the time to try to understand the reason he could not provide a clear answer (namely that there are properties owned by his wife’s family trust of which he may not be aware and probably cannot actually be considered an owner), it becomes easier to understand his hesitation or inability to answer the question. Unfortunately for McCain, no one is going to take that time. The national media certainly won’t, though were Obama to commit a similar mistake I feel confident his fourth estate admirers would quickly come to his rescue. No, regardless of the nuances or complexities that led to his non-answer, the narrative has been established that John McCain is so “rich” and so “out of touch” that he cannot even keep track of how many houses he and his wife have. In a time of economic weakness – especially when the housing market is bearing much of the brunt – this is the type of answer that loses elections.

Meanwhile, back at the Democratic Convention, Monday night was initially billed as Michelle Obama’s time to shine. This changed slightly when Ted Kennedy – “’lion’ of the Senate” – opted to make the trip to Denver, and then further, to address the convention. It is truly sad that Kennedy is gravely ill with a terrible disease I wouldn’t wish on anyone. But can the Democratic Party and the media spare me some of the sycophantic coverage of the “heroic” Kennedy making the “courageous” journey “against medical advice” to “summon the strength” to speak in order to symbolically “pass the torch” to Barack Obama? As John McCain might say, let’s have a little straight talk, my friends. To the extent that Ted Kennedy was ever worthy of holding the same torch as either of his late brothers, that torch was extinguished by the water underneath Dike Bridge on Chappaquiddick in 1969 – along with the life of Mary Jo Kopechne. I couldn’t help but wonder if Chris Matthews was aware of the irony when he said on MSNBC Monday night:

“He’s a sentimental guy, whatever you think of Ted Kennedy, and he looks out for other people”.

Really?

Speaking of Democratic political giants prone to moral failings, when Bill Clinton addresses the convention on Wednesday night, many in the Obama Campaign will be watching nervously to see just how warm or sincere he seems in his support of Obama. Already controversy has surfaced over the former president’s reported displeasure at being scheduled to speak on a night the DNC has themed “Securing America’s Future”. Apparently “The Man from Hope” would much rather speak on economic issues and is bitter about a missed opportunity to do what he loves most: talk about himself. Obviously Clinton believes the economic strength of the 1990’s is his best chance for a lasting legacy not involving the name “Monica”, and it’s a safe bet that the narcissist-in-chief will say as little about Obama as he thinks he can get away with, attempting instead to better his own political standing first and foremost, and if he has extra time, that of his wife too. I remain puzzled that Obama did not dispatch with both Clintons on the convention’s first night, much as McCain is smartly doing with President Bush and Vice President Cheney on Day One of the GOP Convention. The Clintons and the ever-present melodrama in their wake pose a real threat to distract from one of the Obama Campaign’s best opportunities to introduce their candidate to the nation on their terms. And the Clintons wouldn’t have it any other way.

Looking ahead to Thursday night, Obama is slated for his own star turn. Rather than address the convention in the convention hall as is traditionally done, he and his campaign have opted instead to use neighboring Invesco Field (home of the Denver Broncos) so that “The One” can make his acceptance speech in front of 75,000 adoring disciples. I predict that, like his “premature victory lap” in Europe, the Obama Campaign may come to regret sensationalizing and over-hyping what is almost certainly the most important speech any presidential candidate ever gives in the course of a presidential campaign. American voters get it by now. We understand that people literally faint at his rallies, that it’s “cool” to support Obama, and even a Republican like me can’t help but find the Illinois Senator awfully likeable at times on the surface. What American voters may not get, however, is just precisely what is in store for us if Obama becomes president. It seems unlikely we’ll learn much more on Thursday, as a speech in an outdoor stadium to such an enormous crowd is not a setting that lends itself to a serious and sober discussion of what specifically Obama plans to do as president. In making this choice, the Obama team will only perpetuate the very negatives so aptly pointed out in McCain’s “Celeb” ad. Hope and change are wearing thin, and “I’m not George W. Bush” is in and of itself not sufficient rationale for being elected to the highest office in the land. Voters want a president, not a rock star.

With back-to-back party conventions likely nullifying the usual post-convention “bounce” in the polls, there’s a great chance that the fall campaign will officially begin in a deadlock. John McCain is likely to name his running mate any day now, and the Republican Convention begins next week. McCain needs a game-changer to break the tie and build a legitimate lead over Obama, and he has a remarkable opportunity for just that after Obama’s bland, status quo choice of Biden. The how-many-houses gaffe should effectively eliminate Mitt Romney as a potential vice president for McCain, because having an honest-to-God multi-millionaire join the ticket with a man now being portrayed as fabulously wealthy and aloof would make the Obama Campaign’s ads too easy. On the other hand, an argument could be made that McCain’s misstep last week boosts Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty’s chances given his bona fide blue collar background, but in many ways, Pawlenty represents the Biden equivalent of the potential GOP vice presidential candidates. He’ll do no harm, but it’s not clear he’ll help much either. McCain can fundamentally alter this race and gain back his lost momentum with a bold and surprising veep choice, particularly in going with a woman after Obama disappointed the Hillary supporters by not choosing her. But who? Unfortunately for McCain, there is no Republican female who perfectly fits the bill, but there are a few names to keep in mind as we await the official announcement: Alaska Governor Sarah Palin; Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell; Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison; Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn; Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice; former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina; and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman. Each has pros and cons to be sure, but unlike Obama, McCain’s vast experience affords him more leeway to swing for the fences in selecting his running mate. If he wants to win in November, he may have to do just that.

(An abbreviated version of this post can also be seen at Splice Today: http://splicetoday.com/).

Veep Watch

In the last two weeks there has been a great deal of speculation that either Barack Obama, John McCain -- or both -- may be on the verge of naming their running mates very soon. Given all of the chatter, I thought I'd offer a little guidance for you on what to expect (or not to expect) in the coming days and weeks.

First and foremost, let's keep a few dates and events in mind:
1) August 8th - August 24th: The Summer Olympics in Beijing;
3) August 25th - August 28th: The Democratic National Convention in Denver;
4) August 29th - September 1st: Labor Day Weekend;
4) September 1st - September 4th: The Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul.

Now let's look at a few other factors to keep in mind:
1) It's unlikely that either candidate will announce his running mate on a Saturday, Sunday, Monday or Friday -- those are not ideal days in terms of being able to capture the attention of voters. (Wednesday or Thursday, I would argue, would be the best days of the week to announce in order to have the greatest impact on the news cycle -- an important consideration).
2) If neither candidate announces prior to the start of the Olympics on August 8th, there is almost no chance that the announcements will come during the Olympics. (In other words, if we don't hear from either Obama or McCain before August 8th, we almost certainly won't be hearing until after the end of the Olympics on August 24th. Neither campaign wants to compete for media or voter attention with the Olympics).
3) Obama absolutely has to name his running mate by August 27th, the third night of the Democratic Convention when the vice presidential candidate is officially nominated by the delegates to the convention.
4) McCain absolutely has to name his running mate by September 3rd, the third night of the Republican Convention when the vice presidential candidate is officially nominated by the delegates to the convention.
5) McCain will almost certainly not announce his choice right before Labor Day Weekend on August 29th as the news would be lost amidst most Americans enjoying their long holiday weekends.

So what can we deduce from all of this information? I think we can assume that one or both candidates may indeed be close to announcing his choice. Certainly in the case of Obama, if he does not announce before the Olympics begin on August 8th, he is boxing himself in given that his convention begins the day after the Olympics end. McCain, with the later convention, has more flexibility, though the Labor Day Weekend holiday complicates things for him too.

Are you with me so far? I hope so, because here come the predictions...

I suspect Barack Obama will name his running mate on one of the following days, with my guess for the most likely day in bold:
1) Thursday, July 31st (tomorrow);
2) Tuesday, August 5th;
3) Wednesday, August 6th;
4) Thursday, August 7th;
5) Monday, August 25th.

I suspect John McCain will name his running mate on one of the following days -- though his timing is likely subject to whether Obama names his prior to the Olympics -- with my guess for the most likely day in bold:
1) Thursday, July 31st (tomorrow);
2) Tuesday, August 5th;
3) Wednesday, August 6th;
4) Tuesday, September 2nd;
5) Wednesday, September 3rd.

If you're wondering why I think Obama will go on August 6th and McCain on September 3rd, here's why...

In the case of Obama, the Olympics complicate things greatly. He basically has to announce before they start or after they finish, and if he goes after they finish, he's already looking at Day 1 of the Democratic Convention. I suspect Obama would prefer to go after the Olympics, but if he does so, he would likely be announcing his choice on the Monday that his convention starts, not an ideal day of the week to garner the most attention. Further, if Obama waits until the start of his convention to name his pick, he risks the distraction of further speculation and debate over whether Hillary Clinton may be his running mate choice. Since -- in my opinion -- she won't be, he may actually need the weeks between the Olympics and the start of the convention to mend a few fences with Hillary supporters, and to give them time to reconcile themselves to the fact that their woman will likely have no place in a potential Obama Administration. Therefore I believe he needs to make his move pre-Beijing, and by announcing next Wednesday, he's guaranteed two or three days of wall-to-wall coverage before the Olympics capture the majority of Americans' attention.

As for McCain, I can see no real reason for him to beat Obama to the punch on this. In fact, I suspect McCain could easily be poised to alter his selection criteria or decision-making process in reaction to whomever Obama selects. For example, should Obama choose a white male, I would think the chances of McCain selecting a female running mate would increase -- if for nothing else to possibly win over any of those disenchanted former Hillary supporters so bitter that Obama did not pick Clinton as his #2 that they might consider supporting McCain. Like the Olympics for Obama, Labor Day Weekend is an inconvenience for McCain, and it would be unwise for him to announce his pick the day after Obama's big convention speech -- August 29th -- also the first day of Labor Day Weekend. So I think McCain waits, takes advantage of the political lull provided by the Olympics, and strategizes with his team about who best adds a jolt to his ticket, and who best trumps or at least offsets the person that Obama has chosen. Given the obvious public fascination with Obama, he should have no trouble in attracting voters to tune in to the coverage of his convention. The same cannot be said for McCain and the GOP Convention, however, and so if he waits until the last possible day to make his choice (the day that his running mate would be nominated at the convention), he would create a suspense and a buzz around the Republican Convention that otherwise wouldn't be there, intriguing voters and, not insignificantly, the media as well.

I hope you're staying with me. Now to the all-important question: Who will each select?

If you recall, I made my predictions on this question here last month, expressing my belief that Obama should select former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, and that McCain should pick Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Nunn remains in the running for Obama, but Jindal appears unlikely to be named the #2 for McCain, having seemingly removed himself from consideration last week, (though there is some debate as to whether or not he may still be in the running). So while I've still got a chance for my initial picks to be correct, I wouldn't put Nunn or Jindal at the top of my prediction lists anymore.

There's been a lot of buzz lately about a few candidates in both parties. For Obama and the Democrats, there was a bit of a media frenzy on Monday when word allegedly leaked that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine was at or near the top of Obama's short list. For McCain, meanwhile, the recent speculation has centered largely around former Massachusetts Governor (and former GOP presidential candidate) Mitt Romney, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. We should perhaps take all of this buzz with a grain of salt though, as it seems to me that the people about whom we hear the most in the run-up to the selections are rarely the ones who actually end up being chosen. Could this year be different? I think possibly so.

With that said, here are my categorized short lists...

Obama's Likely Choices:
1) Indiana Senator Evan Bayh
2) Delaware Senator Joe Biden
3) Virginia Governor Tim Kaine
4) Former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn
5) New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson
6) Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius

McCain's Likely Choices:
1) Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
2) Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
3) Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
4) Former Ohio Congressman Rob Portman
5) Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
6) South Dakota Senator John Thune

Obama's Long-Shot Choices:
1) Former Maine Senator George Mitchell
2) Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (a Republican)
3) New York Senator Hillary Clinton
4) Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill
5) Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano
6) New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (a Republican)

McCain's Long-Shot Choices:
1) Former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge
2) Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell
3) Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn
4) Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
5) Former Ohio Congressman John Kasich
6) Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison

So there you have it, folks. These are the men and women who I believe stand the best chance of being chosen by Obama and McCain as their running mates, and Wednesday, August 6th and Wednesday, September 3rd are the days, respectively, when I predict the picks will be announced.

But what do you think? I'd appreciate any thoughts or feedback you have, any reasons why you think these predictions will or will not pan out, and/or any questions or comments in general. Simply click on the comments section below to weigh in if you'd like.

In the meantime, stay tuned, and thanks for reading!