My name is Bragg Van Antwerp.
I live in New York and have a fairly typical Wall Street job...by day.
By night...I am a (very) amateur journalist and political commentator.
This blog will be the outlet for my political and journalistic energy.
This election is beginnig to slip away from John McCain. To be clear, I wouldn't necessariliy argue that the election was ever firmly in his grasp, however he has managed to keep things close and competitive so far. I had thought things would remain very tight heading into Election Day, and until yesterday, I would probably have predicted another long election night with no winner declared until early the following morning. But now my gut feeling is that it's getting ugly out there, and more worrisome for McCain, I don't think the prospects for a comeback are very good. A few primary contributors to McCain's current predicament:
McCain's campaign suspension and return to Washington last week were widely viewed as a political stunt, and one that now appears to have backfired.
Initial post-debate reaction seemed to hold that either McCain had been slightly better or that it had effectively been a draw. Either way, that's likely a net win for Obama. Why? Because as the one trailing in the polls, McCain has the burden of significant outperformance on him, and it would be difficult to argue that he significantly outperformed Obama Friday night. Secondly, the foreign policy area was perceived as Obama's possible weakness. By holding his own in the debate, he probably alleviated concerns some voters may have had about his commander-in-chief qualifications. Over the weekend, though, a quasi-consensus developed that Obama had, in fact, won the debate outright -- from a stylistic a perspective as well as a substantive perspective.
Sarah Palin has derailed. McCain's choice of Palin, initially a wildly successful political move, may come back to haunt him. In the immediate days following Palin's selection, the Republican base was both excited and relieved. The media buzz surrounding the selection effectively buried the positive reactions to Obama's convention acceptance speech, and questions about her experience (or lack thereof) had the (unintended?) effect of reflecting the experience question back onto Obama. The wheels began to fall off during Palin's interview with Charlie Gibson of ABC News. Though he was condescending and arguably looking to trip her up, the result was nonetheless a perception that she had been a bit shaky in her performance. If the Gibson interview was shaky, her interview with Katie Couric of CBS News last week, however, was an unmitigated disaster. The impression likely left on those who watched the interview was that of someone who is in over her head -- not the impression the McCain wants to leave with a 72-year old nominee. The stakes were enormously high for her convention speech a few weeks ago, and she delivered a game-changing performance. If it is possible, the stakes are even higher now for the vice presidential debate on Thursday, but my confidence in Palin's ability to again deliver a game-changing performance is lacking, and the choice of Palin as a running mate is quickly beginning to look like a big mistake. Palin can turn this around, but she'll have to be nearly perfect on Thursday night.
The media continue to aid Obama. Ironically, he might not need their help, but nevertheless, the media bias in this election is rather striking. Talking heads on television, op-ed writers in newspapers -- these are people who have enormous power in terms of driving the national conversation, and they have consistently driven that conversation in a decidedly pro-Obama, anti-McCain fashion. (The New York Times has been particularly shameful). This shows no sign of abating any time soon, and it simply adds to the litany of factors now making a victory for McCain unlikely.
Obviously a lot can happen in the next 36 days, but as I write, McCain has likely reached the lowest point of his General Election campaign to date. At this point, I simply don't see a way that McCain will be able to make enough of the uphill climb necessary to turn things around. I suspect this may begin to snowball, that we'll see continued movement towards Obama in the coming weeks, and that on November 4th, we might be going to bed early.
(If this morning's news is any indication, chances are I'm in for another crazy week at work. I will try to chime in when possible, but wanted to get these thoughts "out there" before the "fun" at work begins)...
Well, unless you've had your head buried in the sand for the last week, you've probably noticed that things on Wall Street have been a little hectic. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on Monday morning, insurance giant AIG nearly did the same on Tuesday, and the markets have generally been in turmoil -- the Dow down nearly 450 points yesterday, and then up over 400 points today. In over eight years "in the business", I cannot recall a busier week -- nor can I can recall seeing more volatility. Most alarming for me, I think, is that I can't recall seeing more uncertainty, even from so-called "experts". With the government's apparent plan to create an entity in which to dispose of all of the toxic debt plaguing so many financial firms, the buyers returned today with more conviction than I've seen all week.
Long story short, I've barely had time for lunch this week, and what is already a fairly stressful job has been even more so this week. As a result, blogging has been the last thing on the agenda. The last hour or so of today brought the first signs of potential stability, and should tomorrow be a return to (some semblance) of normalcy, I'll hope to be able to write a post or two this weekend and early next week. In the meantime, a few quick thoughts to leave you with...
The McCain-Palin "bounce" in the polls following the Republican National Convention appears to have exhausted itself. This is not unexpected -- a "bounce" is inherently temporary.
With that said, though, McCain likely catalyzed the reversal in the polls this week when, in the midst of Lehman Brothers' declaration of bankruptcy and a stock market meltdown Monday, he affirmed his belief that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong". He's not entirely incorrect, technically,but that was the last thing that nervous Americans wanted to hear, and it was remarkable in its political tone deafness given the slew of headlines people were seeing that indicated quite the opposite. The lead McCain has enjoyed in the polls since the convention immediately began to disappear, and as of today, he again trails Obama.
According to CNN, Obama is now using the teleprompter for each and every speech he gives -- even for what would normally be considered fairly informal, casual stump speeches. I have a few thoughts on this bit of news. First, clearly the Obama Campaign had become concerned about the candidate's ability to stay "on message" when speaking extemporaneously, perhaps trying to avoid another "lipstick on a pig" moment. Second, this reinforces the belief many have that Obama lacks some degree of substance. He can absolutely write a great speech and he can sure as hell deliver a great speech, but every one of the "great" speeches he has delivered has been while using a teleprompter, and conversely, many of the missteps he has made have been when shooting from the hip. Lastly, this is just further evidence of the media's double-standard. Were this McCain who was now relying on a teleprompter for each and every word he uttered in public, the media would be in a frenzy, and the leftist blogs would be buzzing with claims that McCain is so old (or perhaps even approaching senility), and therefore he is unable to even remember his stump speech lines. (Were it President Bush who did this, the same crowd would be trumpeting how "stupid" Bush is, as evidenced by his need for a script whenever he speaks). With Obama, though, not so much as a peep. (NOTE: I stand corrected on this point thanks to a comment from a reader -- and a good friend -- Brandon. Thanks for the correction, Brando).
A week from tomorrow is the first of three presidential debates -- Friday, September 26th at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, MS. I predict that Obama will maintain his lead -- perhaps even build on it slightly -- and head into next week's debate with a 3-5 point lead in the polls. I believe the debates are crucial this election year. A disastrous showing by either candidate could have a significant impact on the polls and on the election's ultimate outcome, so be sure to tune in and watch.
After a series of missteps and strategic errors, Obama and his campaign enjoyed their first good series of days this week since the Republican Convention. While they seem to have regained their footing for now, he still appears unable to close the deal with American voters. If he had done so, he'd likely be leading by double-digits given the poisonous political environment for any candidate with the Republican "R" next to his or her name. Even still, this election has been and remains Obama's to lose.
Sarah Palin is simply a phenomenal politician and, more importantly, a tremendously good choice by McCain as a Vice Presidential Nominee. With the stakes as high as possible, she came through with a fantastic speech and perfect delivery.
Democrats should be concerned, I think, but so should Palin. If the Democrats and the media have been tough over the last few days, the pressure will only increase now that they have seen what she can do. They will recognize the real threat that her addition to the McCain Ticket singlehandedly poses to Obama's chances, and they will stop at nothing to tear her down. Something tells me she'll be ready, though.
In the meantime, Republicans have found a politician who generates more excitement and enthusiasm than anyone else in the GOP since Ronald Reagan.
It has certainly been an interesting few days for Sarah Palin, her family, and the Republican Party. As indicated here on Friday, I was extremely enthusiastic about John McCain's selection of Palin as his running mate. This enthusiasm only grew over the weekend as I was able to hear more of her on the stump, and also to gauge the almost unanimously positive reactions of the people to whom I spoke. But then, on Monday, news broke that her 17-year old daughter Bristol was pregnant, and I began to feel far less optimistic about Palin and the overall chances for the ticket.
Well, it was a fine three-day run for the McCain campaign, and Republicans in general. As we went to bed last Thursday night, it appeared McCain was on the verge of tapping Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty for the veep slot, and the more I thought about that, I was disappointed, particularly when juxtaposed with Obama’s acceptance speech. Pawlenty is qualified, but he is essentially the personification of “boring white guy.” Friday morning by the time I got to work, the room was buzzing about the rumor that McCain had instead chosen the nearly unknown Sarah Palin. Soon it was confirmed, and I was thrilled. I was familiar with her, but thought she was a long shot at best, particularly with the cloud of an investigation involving the Alaska public safety commission hanging over her. Now that she had been picked, though, I assumed that the team vetting McCain’s potential running mates had looked at the situation closely and determined she had done no wrong, or at least that the controversy wasn’t sufficiently detrimental to disqualify her from being chosen. What’s that saying about the folly of assumptions? Something about making an ass out of you and me?
Friday’s official introduction of Palin energized Republicans; many probably had their first genuine moment of enthusiasm about voting for McCain. To the extent that enthusiasm extended to their wallets, the windfall of contributions the campaign received over the weekend seemed to confirm GOP voters’ newfound excitement. In talking to a variety of friends and relatives of varying degrees of political interest and multiple political leanings Friday, I found the reaction to Palin uniformly positive. Palin’s enthusiasm, her verve, her genuineness, her refreshing departure from typical Washington politics and politicians—all were among the attributes positively cited by those I spoke to. Perhaps more importantly, though, her conservative bona fides are unassailable, and for a Republican base still suspicious of McCain’s sincerity on social issues, this was a choice that put many of those lingering concerns to rest. Over the weekend, McCain’s rallies had an energy level higher than any his campaign has seen so far. Record crowds turned out to see the Alaska governor in the swing states of Ohio and Pennsylvania. Predictably, the media questioned her experience (despite their general disinclination to do the same for Barack Obama), but in reality, she’s not much less experienced than Obama, and by virtue of having even a day of executive experience, she bests that of Obama, McCain and Joe Biden combined. Whether intentional or not, in a brilliant stroke of political jujitsu, every time the experience of the #2 person on the GOP ticket was questioned, the focus was implicitly or sub-consciously turned back to the inexperience of Barack Obama—the man at the top of the Democratic ticket.
But the subsequent news about Bristol Palin’s pregnancy reminded me of that moment in movies when the thriving dance party is suddenly interrupted by the sound of a record scratching. Was she properly vetted? On its face, the issue of her daughter’s pregnancy is just not a big deal. Nearly every family has had a similar instance, and based on the Palin family’s statement about the issues, it sounds as though they are dealing with it in a loving and unified way. But it is a very big deal in its implications. Does her daughter’s teenage pregnancy make her unfit to be the vice president? Of course not. But if McCain knew about this when he selected her, it raises serious doubts about his judgment and political acumen. If he indeed knew, and if he decided it was not sufficiently damaging to stop him from choosing her, then his campaign should have made this fact known shortly after unveiling her on Friday. Surely that would have been preferable to the bombshell news breaking on the first day of the Republican National Convention and in the midst of one of McCain’s only true momentum surges this year. I frankly don’t believe he did know, and if his vetters couldn’t unearth that, is there anything else that McCain’s campaign doesn’t know about Palin? And if Palin herself didn’t tell him, what does that tell us about her?
In general, it seems that most of the same conservative bloggers and writers who were heralding her choice Friday were now downplaying the political implications of her daughter’s pregnancy. The pro-life crowd is predictably ecstatic that Bristol Palin was choosing to keep her baby, and the emerging party line seems to be that the manner in which Sarah Palin and her husband had embraced the news only made her more appealing as a mother, and further, how dare the media and the Democrats invade the Palin’s privacy in this way! Obama, to his credit, almost immediately announced that the families of candidates should be off-limits, and that, oh, by the way, his mother had only been 18 when he was born. This was a classy reaction from Obama, and it was also politically pitch-perfect. Magnanimity is the shrewd play here, and Obama and Democrats will now sit back and give Palin and the GOP all the rope they need to hang themselves. As for Republicans and conservatives now claiming that this will have no backlash (or even that it will somehow be a net positive), they are simply kidding themselves—drunk, I can only assume, from a weekend bender of political enthusiasm after several painful years on the wagon.
Palin was unquestionably a risky choice for McCain, and for the pick to work out she had to be controversy-free until Election Day. While this was the gamble I thought McCain had to take in order to change the game and catalyze his candidacy, it was only worth it if he and his campaign were 100 percent certain there were no surprises about Palin waiting in the wings. Obviously they weren’t, and so in apparently failing to properly vet her, McCain will now find his judgment questioned, and rightfully so. As a committed Republican, I find myself shaking my head in disbelief and disappointment.
Tim Pawlenty is looking pretty good right about now. Perhaps there’s something to be said for the boring white guy after all.
Since writing that, however, I have started to return to the happy, optimistic Bragg of the weekend. Well, almost...
Here's the bottom line: I still think this was a terrific pick by McCain. I think Palin is a star already, and on her way to even bigger and better things (regardless of whether that ascendance begins with the vice presidency this time around or not). I am extremely interested in watching her speak tonight at the Republican National Convention, and I am even looking forward to watching her debate Joe Biden next month. On the other hand, I feel like what could have been the absolutely perfect pick has been somewhat tainted, even if only slightly. I think that to take the risk McCain took in picking her, the whole package (the candidate, the vetting process, etc.) had to be pristine, and it has not been. A part me of me, then, still feels deflated and disappointed, but then on the other hand, is it possible that all of this could still become a positive? Can the McCain-Palin ticket bounce back after a rough few days? If you'd asked me Monday -- as evidenced by my Splice post above -- I'd have said there was no way to come back from this. But the more I think about it and the more I watch the media (predictably) overplay their hand, the more I think this whole thing could, in fact, boomerang in Palin's favor.
The aggressiveness and borderline glee with which liberal bloggers, the mainstream media and some Democrats have attacked Palin is astonishing. The reason the news of Bristol Palin's pregancy even came to light at all is because hateful bloggers at Daily Kos (a preeminent liberal blog) were alleging that Palin had faked her most recent pregnancy (which resulted in the birth of her son, Trig, 5 months old, who suffers from Down Syndrome) in order to cover up her daughter's. In other words, they were alleging that Trig was in fact Palin's grandson. It was truly despicable. The Obama Campaign itself had to back down from their initial official reaction after the consensus held that it had been overly hostile. The media have, as expected, questioned her experience despite their willingness, by and large, to allow questions about Obama's -- the person at the top of the Democratic ticket -- to go unasked. Some reporters have questioned her ability to run for (much less serve as) vice president while still being able to adequately mother her children, a blatantly sexist inquiry. Has anyone ever asked Barack Obama if he feels he can be a good father to his two young daughters while running for (much less serving as) president?
The reality is that she is hardly less qualified than Obama no matter how one measures experience. And if executive experience is the benchmark, well then she has more than Obama, McCain and Biden combined. The fact that Obama on Tuesday felt compelled to compare his experience with that of Palin's -- again, the person in the #2 spot on the opposing ticket -- shows not only some measure of concern on the part of Obama and his campaign, but also the political brilliance of the Palin choice. Going one step further, McCain's campaign responded today with a new ad addressing the experience question, and I think it's fairly effective. Have a look:
I'm going to have to cut this shorter than I had wanted, but I'll be back later this week with more. In summary, I absolutely wish that the McCain Campaign had revealed Bristol Palin's pregnancy at the outset (even as a part of Sarah Palin's biography -- "expectant grandmother," maybe???) rather than let the news come out on the first day of the Convention, but perhaps they had their reasons. If I have learned one thing over the last few weeks, it's that I have consistently underestimated the political instincts of the McCain Campaign. Perhaps this is all part of their grand plan? Whether it is or not -- and whether that plan will work -- remain to be seen.
Tonight's speech would have been make-or-break for her even without the distractions of the last few days, but because of it, the stakes are astronomically high for Palin as she prepares for her primetime address to the GOP Delegates and, in all likelihood, millions of Americans watching at home. Here's hoping it's her turn to hit a home run!
In a normal year with a level playing field, McCain's choice should have been Mitt Romney. But McCain is facing an uphill battle over the next two months. In Barack Obama, he is up against an extraordinarily well-funded, remarkably charismatic candidate. The anti-GOP sentiment in the country is real and formidable, as is the so-called "Bush Fatigue". (McCain also inadvertently dealt an enormous blow to Romney's chances of being chose with his "inability" to answer a question last week about how many houses he and Mrs. McCain own).
So, who is Sarah Palin? At 44 years old, she is the first female Governor of Alaska, an accomplished outdoors(wo)man and athlete, and a former beauty queen who finished second in the Miss Alaska contest in 1984. She and her husband have five children, the eldest of whom will be headed to Iraq in September with the Army. She is currently the most popular governor in America (in terms of her statewide approval ratings), and she has a record of reform, particularly in terms of aggressively fighting corruption. Perhaps most importantly for McCain, who continues to be viewed with some suspicion from the "base" of the GOP, Palin's conservative bona fides -- social and fiscal -- are unassailable. Lastly, as a woman, she has the potential to appeal to disenchanted Hillary supporters.
What will we hear about her from Democrats or anti-McCain members of the media?
She's too inexperienced: While it is true that she is relatively green, she is really no less experienced than Barack Obama, and he's at the top of the Democratic ticket! (And in terms of executive experience, by virtue of having any, she already has more than Obama). Quite frankly, I don't think the "experience" argument is one that Democrats will want to make given the obvious and potentially unfavorable comparisons to Obama's experience (or lack thereof) that will result.
The "scandal" in Alaska: Quite frankly, I can't completely understand this one as it seems to be rather complex. Long story short, Governor Palin fired the Alaska Commissioner of Public Safety and offered him a spot running the state's ABC Board instead. He turned down the offer, and then alleged that Palin had fired him because of his refusal to fire an Alaska State Trooper, Mike Wooten, who is in the process of divorcing Palin's sister. The story is full of twists and turns and at the end of the day, I don't think it has any legs.
Given the reality of the political situation facing McCain, I believe that, on balance, he has made an excellent choice. It's unexpected, it's going to catch many in the media off-guard (in a beneficial way for McCain), it's bold, and it reinforces McCain's "maverick" reputation for which he is so often praised.
I think the Palin choice is a game-changer, and that's exactly what McCain needs.
UPDATE:ABC News reports that Palin is still in Alaska, raising the prospect that she is, not, in fact the choice. Personally I believe this is a smokescreen designed to throw the media off the scent. BUT, if she indeed is not the pick, watch for three more wild-card women to emerge as the actual pick:
Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison
We'll know by Noon today at the absolute latest...
