Game Over. (Now Who's Going to Tell Hillary)???

After a seemingly endless primary season, I think it is safe to declare today that Senator Barack Obama will be the Democratic Nominee for President of the United States. Obama absolutely crushed Senator Hillary Clinton in yesterday's North Carolina Primary, and nearly pulled out a victory in Indiana where she had been favored to win. For Clinton to continue the campaign with any degree of credibility (if not self-respect), she had to have a far more decisive win in Indiana, and a far less decisive loss in North Carolina.

For a short period of time late last night when it appeared that Obama might win both states, some of the communications from the Clinton Campaign seemed indicative of an impending withdrawal from the race. There was word that she would hold no public events today, and even an apparently erroneous report that she had canceled her morning news show appearances for today. Apparently, though, while flying back to Washington from Indiana (during which time she was declared the winner in Indiana), Hillary and/or her advisers had changed course, announcing a campaign stop today in West Virginia, site of the next primary on Tuesday, as well as fundraiser in Washington this evening. Early this morning, news broke that Clinton had loaned her campaign nearly $6.5 million recently. Even as I write, the Clinton Campaign has announced that Hillary will also appear in South Dakota on Thursday -- a state whose primary is not for another four weeks! None of this sounds like a candidate who is ready to quit.

Remaining in the race now as it certainly appears she intends to do is not only stubborn and ill-advised, it really borders on the delusional. Quite simply, without some catastrophic implosion of the Obama Campaign, there is no way Clinton can now win the nomination. The sheer mathematical hurdles she faces alone are insurmountable, but when you add those to an obvious shift in tone from the media and political pundits and what I expect will be an imminent and significant shift of superdelegate support to Obama, it becomes even more crystal clear that for Hillary Clinton, this game is over.

My personal opinion is that Hillary and her inner circle are well aware of the reality of the situation. They have seen the numbers, and undoubtedly have crunched them in every conceivable way in search of positive spin. After last night, there is no positive spin to be found. I suspect that the reason she sounds today like a candidate who intends to continue (and indeed who is backing her rhetoric up by making additional campaign appearances) is to attempt to increase her leverage when it comes to the customary bargaining that will take place between Hillary, Obama and their respective campaigns when she inevitably throws in the towel. Whether she wants the vice presidential slot on the ticket, a cabinet position or who knows what else -- the longer she stays in the race and effectively denies Obama the ability to officially claim the nomination, the more desperate he will be for her to withdraw, and the more inclined he might be to give her what she wants to make that happen. A good test of this theory will be to watch over the next few weeks -- assuming she does continue her campaign -- to see if she avoids negative attacks on Obama. If while continuing her run she hesitates to inflict further political damage on him, that could be a sign that her continuing campaign efforts are no longer about winning, but instead about improving her strategic position for an eventual exit.

Regardless of her motive for remaining in the race, I believe it is now time for Hillary to withdraw if she values her own political future. A graceful exit -- even after a fairly bruising campaign against Obama -- would almost certainly result in enough goodwill on the part of the Democratic electorate to give her a future -- whether it be running again for president in 2012 (if Obama loses this year), running for Governor of New York, or seeking the position of Majority Leader in the Senate. On the other hand, if she continues to campaign in earnest, attacking Obama and pulling out every conceivable stop despite reality of her situation, she risks diminishing Obama's chances in November, further dividing the Democratic Party, and earning (rightfully) the permanent anger and resentment of her fellow Democratic officeholders and the Democratic voters. The choice should be clear, and the route she chooses to take will tell us more about exactly who Hillary Clinton is than anything else she has ever done or said.

Wanna Get Away? So Do Republicans...

All vacations are good. Some vacations, though, are better than others. A truly great vacation is marked by the ability to all but forget the worries or stresses of work or home awaiting your return. Then, before you know it, there are only three days left, then two days, and soon those concerns and anxieties creep back into your consciousness. And while you know the end is near and the real world must soon be faced again, another drink, another swim, or any of the other wonderful distractions of the trip allow you to sweep it all under the rug for just a bit longer. But deep down, you know what’s coming on Monday morning.

If this sounds familiar to you or is something you’ve experienced, then you – regardless of political affiliation – know what it feels like to be a Republican today. Because today and for the last two months, Republicans have effectively been on a vacation courtesy of the Democratic Party.

For Republicans, the best part of the ongoing nomination battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is that with the focus squarely on the increasingly hostile and internecine squabble between the two candidates, the GOP faithful have been able to temporarily forget the candidate who they will put forth against the Democrats’ ultimate victor in November.

A stronger Republican candidate would be much better than tied with or slightly trailing Clinton and Obama in general election polls. A GOP candidate with solid and sincere support from the party’s base would see his campaign coffers overflowing with contributions. Neither is the case for John McCain, however.

Despite the thumping that Obama took at Wednesday night’s debate and despite the fact that it will “take a village” to convince Hillary Clinton to drop out, the reality is that this wonderful trip is coming to an end sooner than the GOP would like to think. Even if Hillary holds on to win in Pennsylvania, current polls indicate she’ll likely lose to Obama in both Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later, putting the nail in the coffin of her presidential hopes, and putting an end to the Republican vacation.

Over the last two months, Republicans have delighted in watching Obama squirm under the uncomfortable scrutiny of the Reverend Wright controversy, then watched in amazement as the media seemed to forget it entirely while tripping over themselves to exalt his much-ballyhooed “More Perfect Union” speech about race in America. GOP voters again high-fived as the Illinois Senator stuck his foot in his mouth last week in San Francisco, declaring that small-town voters in Pennsylvania are “bitter” and “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations”, then again watching as he apparently suffered no backlash in the polls as a result.

If Ronald Reagan was “the Teflon President”, many Republicans probably think they are seeing the closest thing to a Teflon Candidate in Barack Obama. While Obama’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities are apparent and likely not yet fully discovered, an honest Republican would admit that Obama and his campaign show every sign of being winners. This is evident in the size of the crowds he attracts, the frenzy into which he whips those crowds, and the staggering fundraising totals he has continued to post every month.

An honest Republican would also accept the reality that current political circumstances nearly guarantee a Democratic victory in November. The Republican incumbent continues to garner anemic approval ratings, the economy is hurting, and the Iraq War remains very unpopular among the majority of Americans. Perhaps a truly phenomenal GOP candidate could overcome these long odds, but even then, probably only with the help of a horrendous (think Dukakis or worse) Democratic nominee.

John McCain, though, is not a truly phenomenal candidate, and Barack Obama has shown no sign that he would be a horrendous nominee – particularly if the majority of the media remain in the tank for him, and if the majority of voters continue to ignore some very real concerns about him, seemingly transfixed by his brilliant and eloquent (if empty) rhetoric.

Is an Obama victory a foregone conclusion? Not definitely. A lot can happen between now and November – both geopolitically and on the campaign trail – that could alter the electoral landscape in ways impossible to predict today. McCain could catch fire somehow, or Obama could crash and burn. All of these what-ifs and contingencies, however, are the stuff of happy thoughts born of the surf, sun and umbrella drinks the Democrats have given Republicans over the last two months.

Unfortunately for Republicans, when the alarm clock goes off on the last day of this wonderful getaway, they will awaken to the harsh truth that John McCain just doesn’t feel like a winner in November – a deep-down realization that while hard to accept, is impossible to ignore – even while on vacation.

(This post can also be seen at Splice Today: http://splicetoday.com/).