Veep Watch

In the last two weeks there has been a great deal of speculation that either Barack Obama, John McCain -- or both -- may be on the verge of naming their running mates very soon. Given all of the chatter, I thought I'd offer a little guidance for you on what to expect (or not to expect) in the coming days and weeks.

First and foremost, let's keep a few dates and events in mind:
1) August 8th - August 24th: The Summer Olympics in Beijing;
3) August 25th - August 28th: The Democratic National Convention in Denver;
4) August 29th - September 1st: Labor Day Weekend;
4) September 1st - September 4th: The Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul.

Now let's look at a few other factors to keep in mind:
1) It's unlikely that either candidate will announce his running mate on a Saturday, Sunday, Monday or Friday -- those are not ideal days in terms of being able to capture the attention of voters. (Wednesday or Thursday, I would argue, would be the best days of the week to announce in order to have the greatest impact on the news cycle -- an important consideration).
2) If neither candidate announces prior to the start of the Olympics on August 8th, there is almost no chance that the announcements will come during the Olympics. (In other words, if we don't hear from either Obama or McCain before August 8th, we almost certainly won't be hearing until after the end of the Olympics on August 24th. Neither campaign wants to compete for media or voter attention with the Olympics).
3) Obama absolutely has to name his running mate by August 27th, the third night of the Democratic Convention when the vice presidential candidate is officially nominated by the delegates to the convention.
4) McCain absolutely has to name his running mate by September 3rd, the third night of the Republican Convention when the vice presidential candidate is officially nominated by the delegates to the convention.
5) McCain will almost certainly not announce his choice right before Labor Day Weekend on August 29th as the news would be lost amidst most Americans enjoying their long holiday weekends.

So what can we deduce from all of this information? I think we can assume that one or both candidates may indeed be close to announcing his choice. Certainly in the case of Obama, if he does not announce before the Olympics begin on August 8th, he is boxing himself in given that his convention begins the day after the Olympics end. McCain, with the later convention, has more flexibility, though the Labor Day Weekend holiday complicates things for him too.

Are you with me so far? I hope so, because here come the predictions...

I suspect Barack Obama will name his running mate on one of the following days, with my guess for the most likely day in bold:
1) Thursday, July 31st (tomorrow);
2) Tuesday, August 5th;
3) Wednesday, August 6th;
4) Thursday, August 7th;
5) Monday, August 25th.

I suspect John McCain will name his running mate on one of the following days -- though his timing is likely subject to whether Obama names his prior to the Olympics -- with my guess for the most likely day in bold:
1) Thursday, July 31st (tomorrow);
2) Tuesday, August 5th;
3) Wednesday, August 6th;
4) Tuesday, September 2nd;
5) Wednesday, September 3rd.

If you're wondering why I think Obama will go on August 6th and McCain on September 3rd, here's why...

In the case of Obama, the Olympics complicate things greatly. He basically has to announce before they start or after they finish, and if he goes after they finish, he's already looking at Day 1 of the Democratic Convention. I suspect Obama would prefer to go after the Olympics, but if he does so, he would likely be announcing his choice on the Monday that his convention starts, not an ideal day of the week to garner the most attention. Further, if Obama waits until the start of his convention to name his pick, he risks the distraction of further speculation and debate over whether Hillary Clinton may be his running mate choice. Since -- in my opinion -- she won't be, he may actually need the weeks between the Olympics and the start of the convention to mend a few fences with Hillary supporters, and to give them time to reconcile themselves to the fact that their woman will likely have no place in a potential Obama Administration. Therefore I believe he needs to make his move pre-Beijing, and by announcing next Wednesday, he's guaranteed two or three days of wall-to-wall coverage before the Olympics capture the majority of Americans' attention.

As for McCain, I can see no real reason for him to beat Obama to the punch on this. In fact, I suspect McCain could easily be poised to alter his selection criteria or decision-making process in reaction to whomever Obama selects. For example, should Obama choose a white male, I would think the chances of McCain selecting a female running mate would increase -- if for nothing else to possibly win over any of those disenchanted former Hillary supporters so bitter that Obama did not pick Clinton as his #2 that they might consider supporting McCain. Like the Olympics for Obama, Labor Day Weekend is an inconvenience for McCain, and it would be unwise for him to announce his pick the day after Obama's big convention speech -- August 29th -- also the first day of Labor Day Weekend. So I think McCain waits, takes advantage of the political lull provided by the Olympics, and strategizes with his team about who best adds a jolt to his ticket, and who best trumps or at least offsets the person that Obama has chosen. Given the obvious public fascination with Obama, he should have no trouble in attracting voters to tune in to the coverage of his convention. The same cannot be said for McCain and the GOP Convention, however, and so if he waits until the last possible day to make his choice (the day that his running mate would be nominated at the convention), he would create a suspense and a buzz around the Republican Convention that otherwise wouldn't be there, intriguing voters and, not insignificantly, the media as well.

I hope you're staying with me. Now to the all-important question: Who will each select?

If you recall, I made my predictions on this question here last month, expressing my belief that Obama should select former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn, and that McCain should pick Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Nunn remains in the running for Obama, but Jindal appears unlikely to be named the #2 for McCain, having seemingly removed himself from consideration last week, (though there is some debate as to whether or not he may still be in the running). So while I've still got a chance for my initial picks to be correct, I wouldn't put Nunn or Jindal at the top of my prediction lists anymore.

There's been a lot of buzz lately about a few candidates in both parties. For Obama and the Democrats, there was a bit of a media frenzy on Monday when word allegedly leaked that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine was at or near the top of Obama's short list. For McCain, meanwhile, the recent speculation has centered largely around former Massachusetts Governor (and former GOP presidential candidate) Mitt Romney, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. We should perhaps take all of this buzz with a grain of salt though, as it seems to me that the people about whom we hear the most in the run-up to the selections are rarely the ones who actually end up being chosen. Could this year be different? I think possibly so.

With that said, here are my categorized short lists...

Obama's Likely Choices:
1) Indiana Senator Evan Bayh
2) Delaware Senator Joe Biden
3) Virginia Governor Tim Kaine
4) Former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn
5) New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson
6) Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius

McCain's Likely Choices:
1) Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
2) Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
3) Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina
4) Former Ohio Congressman Rob Portman
5) Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal
6) South Dakota Senator John Thune

Obama's Long-Shot Choices:
1) Former Maine Senator George Mitchell
2) Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel (a Republican)
3) New York Senator Hillary Clinton
4) Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill
5) Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano
6) New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (a Republican)

McCain's Long-Shot Choices:
1) Former Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge
2) Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell
3) Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn
4) Alaska Governor Sarah Palin
5) Former Ohio Congressman John Kasich
6) Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison

So there you have it, folks. These are the men and women who I believe stand the best chance of being chosen by Obama and McCain as their running mates, and Wednesday, August 6th and Wednesday, September 3rd are the days, respectively, when I predict the picks will be announced.

But what do you think? I'd appreciate any thoughts or feedback you have, any reasons why you think these predictions will or will not pan out, and/or any questions or comments in general. Simply click on the comments section below to weigh in if you'd like.

In the meantime, stay tuned, and thanks for reading!

The Veepstakes

With the primaries finally over and the general election battle between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama under way in earnest, the attention of the campaigns, the media and political junkies will now turn towards the “veepstakes” and who each candidate will pick as his running mate.

There are many factors that go into the selection of the vice presidential candidate. Some would argue that Electoral College strength is paramount. In other words, can the running mate deliver or help deliver his or her home state and its electoral votes? (Example: Michael Dukakis’ 1988 selection of Texan Lloyd Bentsen). Others would argue that experience is most important. How can the running mate help to shore up weaknesses or fill in gaps of the nominee’s résumé? (Example: George W. Bush’s 2000 selection of Dick Cheney). Another argument is that identity or ideological politics play a crucial role. Could a female running mate help attract female voters or would an African-American candidate attract African-American voters? Could a running mate with a different stance than the nominee on issues important to the party help attract the key “swing voters”? (Example: Al Gore’s 2000 selection of Joe Lieberman, who was Jewish, and who also had prominently criticized the behavior of President Clinton, from whom Gore sought distance). And still a fourth theory holds that the nominee should select one of his primary competitors. Doing so, proponents might argue, helps to appease the defeated candidate’s supporters and unite the party behind two of its most popular candidates. (Example: John Kerry’s 2004 selection of John Edwards). The reality is that for McCain and Obama, all, some or none of these considerations could factor in to their ultimate choice, and at the end of the day, they will probably end up going with the person with whom they are most comfortable, like best and trust most.

John McCain’s choice of a running mate is probably more important than the average presidential nominee for several reasons, his age and his history of melanoma foremost among them. If elected, McCain would be 72 years old on Inauguration Day, the oldest president ever sworn into office. The most important role a vice president can ever play, of course, is to assume the presidency in the event of the president’s death, and morbidity aside, this is something that must be considered by McCain and those who choose to vote for him. Choosing a vice presidential candidate who is younger and more vigorous could reassure voters who may worry about McCain’s longevity. The second factor making McCain’s choice crucial is the fragile nature of his relationship with the conservative wing of the Republican Party, also known as “the base”. Many of them are very suspicious of McCain and of the authenticity of his conservative positions. By choosing a running mate viewed more positively by the base, McCain could go a long way toward assuaging their concerns and, more importantly, receiving their votes.

Barack Obama’s selection is also very important, but for different and more complicated reasons than McCain’s. Obama is only in the fourth year of his first Senate term, two years of which he has largely spent running for president. Prior to that, he was a member of the Illinois State Legislature, and that is the extent of his political experience. At age 46, questions about whether he has the experience needed to be president may dog him all summer and fall. Were he to choose someone viewed as “older and wiser” or someone with a great deal of experience, many voters concerned about the question of experience might be comforted. The other (and more complicated) issue for Obama is whether or not to choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate. She quite plainly wants the spot and has explicitly made that known. Many of her supporters are reportedly still very upset that she did not win the nomination, and many claim they will withhold their support (financial and otherwise), and perhaps even their votes, unless Hillary is chosen as Obama’s #2. These are likely not idle threats, nor are they insignificant threats, and so Obama may be forced to give serious consideration to choosing his erstwhile opponent despite his otherwise likely disinclination to do so.

John McCain’s best choice is Piyush Subhaschandra Amrit Jindal, known to most as “Bobby”. Bobby Jindal is the current Governor of Louisiana, and at age 37, he is a rising star in the Republican Party. Jindal was born in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, but his parents were Punjabi Indian immigrants who had moved to the United States while his mother was pregnant with him. Raised as a Hindu, Jindal converted to Catholicism while in high school, from which he graduated at age 16. After attending Brown for his undergraduate studies, he went on to Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar. In 1996 at the age of 26, Jindal was appointed as Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, turning a bankrupt department with a $400 million deficit into a department with three years of surpluses. Two years later, he became Executive Director of the National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare, a panel created to help reform the Medicare system. In 1999, then only 28 years old, Jindal was appointed president of the University of Louisiana System, an enormous job – particularly for someone his age. In 2001 he was unanimously confirmed by Senate Republicans and Democrats to serve as Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services in Washington. In 2004, he was elected to the House of Representatives, where he served on the Homeland Security Committee, as well as the Committee on Resources and the Committee on Education and the Workforce. He won reelection to a second term in 2006 – not a good year for GOP congressional candidates – with an astounding 88% of the vote. After two terms in Congress, he returned to Louisiana where he was elected governor in 2008, the youngest in the nation. With a 98% American Conservative Union rating for his two terms in Congress, his conservative bona fides are unassailable. Equally unassailable his Jindal’s obvious intelligence – brilliance, really – and he displays an ease and likeability on camera that would serve him well in a national, television-driven campaign.

As McCain’s running mate, Jindal’s assets are many. He brings obvious youth and energy to the campaign, and as a first generation American, he also adds ethnic diversity to the ticket – and to the party often criticized for being dominated by “white guys” – a particularly important point in a year in which the Democratic Nominee is an African-American. As a staunch conservative, he pacifies the GOP base, and their unofficial leader, Rush Limbaugh, who has called Jindal “the next Ronald Reagan – winning with 100% pure conservatism”, an effusive endorsement from an individual who has the ability to change minds and generate votes. He helps McCain shore up the South – a usually reliably Republican region but one that is suspicious and wary of McCain. While he is young, a Vice President Jindal is almost inarguably more qualified to be president than Barack Obama given the diversity, the depth and the executive nature of his experience. As the son of immigrants, he can potentially attract the votes of Hispanics and other important ethnic voting blocs who can identify with his first-generation American status. Jindal would be a bold and inspired choice that would excite the Republican Party, confound the Democratic Party, and intrigue the media. While there are surely other strong possibilities for McCain to consider, Jindal is far and away the strongest.

Barack Obama should look to the Peach State for his running mate and select former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn. Now 69 years old, Nunn’s political career began in 1968 when he was elected to the Georgia House of Representatives. In 1972, he was elected to the Senate, and for 24 years he served Georgia in the Senate before retiring in 1997, indicating that he was lacking a “zest and enthusiasm” for politics. Nunn’s career in the Senate was distinguished by his interest in and advocacy for a strong defense policy. He has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential candidate in several of the last elections, as well as a possible Secretary of Defense in several administrations. While a loyal Democrat, Nunn would certainly be considered moderate to conservative, epitomized by his opposition to the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy proposed by President Clinton, but also by his occasional opposition to tax hikes and his support for the death penalty. On some of the most highly charged issues for Democrats, however – including abortion, environmental issues and gun control – Nunn toed the party line. Since his retirement, he has continued to pursue his passion of foreign affairs and defense policy, focusing in particular on preventing the spread of nuclear materials globally. He is currently the CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which, per its website, is “working to reduce the global threats from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons”. Nunn’s work on the reduction of weapons has resulted in three separate nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize, and certainly is a timely and relevant effort given the apparent interest of Al Qaeda and other terrorists in acquiring nuclear, biological and/or chemical weapons capabilities. Nunn is well-known to Democrats and to Republicans, and to a large degree, is also respected by people in both parties for his statesmanlike qualities and generally moderate views and record.

Nunn is the obvious choice for Obama. He is, quite frankly, a “boring, white guy”, but that’s exactly what Obama – an exciting and charismatic African-American – needs. He brings decades of experience to the ticket, buttressing a nominee who lacks it. Nunn has a wealth of foreign policy and defense knowledge and expertise, again filling in what many may perceive as a gap in Obama’s qualifications. As a son of the South – and one who has the accent and demeanor to prove it – Nunn can only help Obama in a region of the country where racism undoubtedly persists and surely hurts Obama’s chances. To voters in the South and elsewhere who may be nervous about Obama, seeing Sam Nunn on the ticket – the ultimate endorsement – makes the idea of a President Obama a “safer” proposition. As a moderate Democrat, a Vice President Nunn tempers the senator who the non-partisan National Journal named “most liberal” in 2007, blunting one of the key GOP arguments against Obama. Sam Nunn exudes a quiet confidence that only years of service can provide, and he would supply a healthy grounding to an Obama Campaign that often seems almost too frenzied and too hyperactive. Yet at nearly 70 years old, Nunn obviously does not harbor presidential aspirations of his own, and so he would never seek to (nor be able to) upstage the “rock star” aspect of the nominee, a big part of his success. Nunn would play the role of the wise parent, keeping a watchful eye over his younger charge, simultaneously steering Obama clear of missteps and reassuring those who worry about the ramifications of any such missteps. Last, but certainly not least, he is not Hillary Clinton, and therefore brings none of the baggage, none of the agenda, none of the drama (and no Bill) that she would were Obama to select her. Selecting Sam Nunn as his running mate should be a no-brainer and a sure winner for Barack Obama.

So, readers...what do you think? If you're so inclined, please use the "comments" area below to post your own suggestions for McCain and Obama's best running mate choices.

(An abbreviated version of this post can also be seen at Splice Today: http://splicetoday.com/).